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RTHK THe Close
RTHK The Close China: the revival in high tech fortunes and the blessings of Xi. PLus the latest credit figures show traction.. US: Retail data- does weakness spell the end of the Trump miracle and what to expect from Tariffs. Munich- the weakness of the west is a big…
Rough Calculation of potential US Reciprocal - Remedial Tariffs
Brace Yourself! Reciprocal US Tariffs. - tariffs likely to be announced April. These are not in market prices. The report sent you on Friday 15, 2025 - The Anatomy of Exceptionalism- deals with the categories of Tariffs President Trump is likely to impose see Chap…
Anatomy of Exceptionalism
US Exceptionalism is the investor conviction that “things can’t go wrong in the US of America” for you or your money. Like Frankenstein, “Exceptionalism” is half man, and half beast, half economic reality and half perception - laced with large dollops of hope. The markets ca…
Ukraine: Worse than Minsk
The liberal world order, if not dead, is very ill in bed. What replaces it will not be orderly or come cheap. States, previously part a network of alliances, will go it alone to ensure their own defense and strategic interests. There will be a massive increase in defence…
The Micro Podcast on Macro Matters
The Micro Podcast on Macro Matter. Trump's tariffs and China's measured but lethal response. Netanyahu manipulated Trump into cementing him in office as Israel's PM. That makes more war in Gaza more likely. And does it mean that Netanyahu will be able to manipulate Tr…
RTHK THe Close on Radio 3 with Carolyn Wright
RTHK The Close with Caroln Wright: - What’s the thimking behind the tariffs? - Chibna’s deep reaction - not mild but threatening. - How Netanyahu played Trump to reinforce his ghold on office. What does this mean for Gaza. Will a renewal of hotsilites involve Iran and oil an…
“Exceptionalism” and the USD
This update looks at US “Exceptionalism” and USD strength. The drivers of both are international equity flows as much as safe haven demand for US assets or central bank activity.. The investment conclusions are that a bear market in US equities would have have negative implic…
US "Exceptionalism" and the USD - the drivers.
How US "Exceptionalism", and the bull market in the US$ and US equities are linked. Since just before the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, foreigners' holdings of US financial assets has risen from US$ 20 trn. to US$ 30 trn. Of this increase 10% was down to increased holding by …
CNBC Market Alert: - Why US "exceptionalism" will fail this year
CNBC Market Alert: - Why US "exceptionalism" will fail this year and how tariffs will be a major cause.
CNBC News Talk: Trump and Europe the Visceral Hate Thing
CNBC News Talk: Trump and Europe the Visceral Hate Thing