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EU Sovereign Debt Crisis - The ECB Toolbox
The ECB will "do whatever it takes" in a Eurozone sovereign debt crisis, but not before spreads are much wider. QS maps the ECB tool box, from TPI and PEPP to OMT and the ESM, shows who authorises each tool, and explains why we stay short French and Spanish 10 yr bonds and the Eu…
EU Sovereign Debt Crisis
We are heading for an EU sovereign debt crisis. France has no political way out of crisis, Spain's youth-driven housing crisis is likely to bring right-wing populism to power, and Germany and Italy are little better. The ECB will ultimately step in rather than end the euro, but t…
Oooh Laa Laa of the French Sovereign Debt Crisis!!!
Oil at $100, France under pressure, and a tougher road for emerging markets. Our strategist David Roche was on NDTV Profit today, and his message was cautious. The energy crisis is only "paused," not over. Key takeaways: 🛢️ Oil: Prices are likely to hover near $100 a barrel. Sup…
QS and Sovereign Bonds: Short France, Long Switzerland
Why this note? QS has been short French long-dated sovereign bonds (OATs) since 2024, long before it was fashionable, and today we changed the long end of that position. The reasons for the trade were never American. They were French, and the evidence is now in the numbers
Sucking Diesel
Sucking Diesel In the dead of night I sent you the G7 release about releasing 100mn bbl. of Diesel from Strategic Reserves. Now I am attaching all those good intentions to the locomotive of oil markets. Where does this leave us? With a deal that few understand. A deal that over t…
A New Strategic Equilibrium?
QS argues that markets are mistaking the suppression of symptoms for the resolution of underlying tensions, from Treasury buybacks to US-China dialogue. The defining feature of the next cycle may be not declining risk, but rising lethality.
US Middle East Position
QS expects no substantive US military action before the Midterms, with a third Strike Group giving only a short window for temporary escalation. The main risk is Iran escalating and putting further military stress on the Gulf States.
Transatlantic Fuel Standoff
How US pressure on Europe’s diesel reserves could affect prices and energy security. The United States is reportedly asking France and Germany to release diesel from Europe’s emergency reserves. Washington wants to lower fuel prices quickly. Europe wants to keep enough fuel in re…
US Taps the SPR Again: A Political Gesture That Contradicts Its Own Story
THE BOTTOM LINE A pure political move. It may delay, but will not cancel, US executive market interference with diesel exports. No change to oil prices. The release will not alter global or US domestic prices for crude or refined products. But it contradicts the Administration. T…
Safe Haven Assets: Doing What They Were Built to Do
A Q3 2026 performance snapshot, 30 June to 25 September 2026 Yesterday's report, Applets , set out why the world is getting riskier. This note is the proof point. Since 30 June, the Quantum Strategy safe haven allocation has done exactly what it was built to do. Ten of its eleven…