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Shifting Sands - error corrected
the Shifting sands report had a mistake. The text said US tariffs on Japanese steel and aluminium was 25% it is of course 50%. the figure of 50% was throughout the report - including grahics and tables. sorry! d
Tariffs: How Good is Bad? The US-Japanese hadshake deal
Tariffs: How Good is Bad? The US-Japanese hadshake deal Investment Conclusion The equity markets are rejoicing at the latest US tariff deals. I am not. And neither are bond markets or the US $. The Japanese handshake 15% tariff deal is better than the mooted 25% tariffs. Bu…
RTHK: The close - Business & Market Discussion With Jeff Chung and I - Japan after the elections and what about the US Fed meeting in July
RTHK: The close - Business & Market Discussion With Jeff Chung and me - Japan after the elections and what about the US Fed meeting in July - the Japanese elections cannot be ignored by markets because the leadership vaccum it creates leaves Japan vulnerable to US bu…
Shifting Sands
Shifting Sands Investment Conclusion The result of the Japanese election heralds a period of weak government at a critical time. That undermines the safe haven status of the Yen. The Yen long position in the Wealth Preservation Portfolio is being sold. A short…
The Stable Coin Plot?
Executive Summary: The Stable Coin Plot? Stablecoins are the privatisation of money. They have the potential to: • Disrupt traditional banking systems. They can suck deposits out of the banking system leaving significant funding gaps for banks and the “real” economy. …
NDTV: Trump Needs A Deal Somewhere...David Roche On trump Tariff With India.
This broadcast looks at 2 topics. The future path of US Treasury Yields and whether the Indian market can escape Trump's tariffs threats against Russia and India - yes they are connected
President Trump’s Putin Pivot
President Trump’s Putin Pivot Investment Conclusion Trump’s Pivot on Putin is probably due to a sense of personnel betrayal. This is likely to make it more durable than if it was based on a moral policy vision. The pivot has the potential to change the battlefield in …
RTHK: The Close Business and Market Discussion - Jeff Cheung, David Roche & Richard Harris.- Is August 1st for TACO or for real?
Is the August 1st deadline set by Trump more bragadachio or for real? this podcast provides the answer. It's for real. And it goes into the reasons why.
Monday Odd Bins.
Shipping Data. So far, Chinese total exports have weathered US tariffs without a contraction. Exports to other places than the US have grown and more than offset losses to the US. That is "normal" as US exports are only US 500bn out of a total of nearly US$ 4 trn. The questi…
Trade Update
Trade Update Date: Saturday, July 12, 2025 Investment Conclusion The range and level of tariff threats made by the US this week is not something President Trump can go TACO on. Indeed the accusation that he is TACO on Tariffs probably is a factor behind the current…