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On a Train in China
On a Train in China Investment Conclusion The US confrontation with China will escalate further. China has escalatory dominance. And the confrontation is an opportunity for Beijing to pursue other goals left by the vacuum of US soft power withdrawal and the injury cause…
The Weaponisation of Economics (Part 2: Economic Weapons of Mass Destruction)
The Weaponisation of Economics (Part 2: Economic Weapons of Mass Destruction) Investment Conclusion The weaponisation of the global economy has a life cycle of its own. Economic Weaponisation is growing in lethality and sophistication. Weaponisation is shaping t…
The Weaponisation of Economics - (Part 1: The Escalation Ladder Viewed from China)
Investment Conclusion Here’s the thing! You do not have to speculate about the fate Chinese holdings of US Treasuries to work out how the trade war will cause a US recession and a fiscal crisis. Just take a look at trade war “escalation dominance” from China’s perspectiv…
US - China Trade War - Re-Assessment of Damage and Possible Spillovers.
Re-Assessment of Tariff Damage and the Spillovers to Expect. Yesterday i wrote to you after the initial Trump volte face on the imposition of reciprocal tariffs (postponed for 90 days) and the imposition of 125% tariffs on China. I calculated that the average US tariff w…
US - China Trade War - Re-Assessment of Damage and Possible Spillovers.
Re-Assessment of Tariff Damage and the Spillovers to Expect. Yesterday i wrote to you after the initial Trump volte face on the imposition of reciprocal tariffs postponed for 90 days and the imposition of 125% tariffs on China. I calculated that the average US tariff was…
Germany - The Coalition is Signed! Here are the spending plans - bullish for growth and equities
Germany Coalition (CDU/CSU + SPD) Agreed & Spending Plans. Positive for German equities. Bearish for long term Bunds (but not short term bunds). Marginally positive for the Euro. The German coalition agreement and the published spending plans are positive fo…
US Tariffs: The Gentleman is for turning
The Gentleman is for turning Tariffs are still in mega-shock terrain: US average tariffs after April 10 volte face are 26% Vs 3% when President Trump took office. That’s 1% higher than if reciprocal tariffs had been implemented. What has changed is that Trump behavi…
Money Talk: with Peter Lewis and Louisa Fox
Quantifying what Trump means for US GDP & Others'
CNBC Markets with Lim Hui Jie
good CNBC article on global defence spending as a result of the End of Alliances.
Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) - David Roche - US Trade and Trump’s Tariffs – Disruption or Design?
President Trump aims to do two things. One is to destroy the liberal world order and ditch the US alliances that constitute it. The second aim is to kill off globalisation and replace it with a nationalist economic model. The major tool to achieve these aims is a unified geo-eco…