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US - China Trade War - Re-Assessment of Damage and Possible Spillovers.
Re-Assessment of Tariff Damage and the Spillovers to Expect. Yesterday i wrote to you after the initial Trump volte face on the imposition of reciprocal tariffs postponed for 90 days and the imposition of 125% tariffs on China. I calculated that the average US tariff was…
Germany - The Coalition is Signed! Here are the spending plans - bullish for growth and equities
Germany Coalition (CDU/CSU + SPD) Agreed & Spending Plans. Positive for German equities. Bearish for long term Bunds (but not short term bunds). Marginally positive for the Euro. The German coalition agreement and the published spending plans are positive for eq…
US Tariffs: The Gentleman is for turning
The Gentleman is for turning Tariffs are still in mega-shock terrain: US average tariffs after April 10 volte face are 26% Vs 3% when President Trump took office. That’s 1% higher than if reciprocal tariffs had been implemented. What has changed is that Trump behavi…
Money Talk: with Peter Lewis and Louisa Fox
Quantifying what Trump means for US GDP & Others'
CNBC Markets with Lim Hui Jie
good CNBC article on global defence spending as a result of the End of Alliances.
Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) - David Roche - US Trade and Trump’s Tariffs – Disruption or Design?
President Trump aims to do two things. One is to destroy the liberal world order and ditch the US alliances that constitute it. The second aim is to kill off globalisation and replace it with a nationalist economic model. The major tool to achieve these aims is a unified geo-eco…
RTHK - The Close.
Why Trump is not a buy-on- the-dips opportunity but a change in world order that destroys globalisation and the liberal world order in ways that will profoundly change what you invest in.
RUSI - US Trade & Trump’s Tariffs - disruption or design
It is the dual targeting of US alliances politically and globalisation economically which makes the Trump 2.0 administration so lethal.
Events update.
Update - the week ahead. I don't expect any surrender by President Trump on April 9th. Barring that the full 25% rate of Tariffs announced on April 2 will be implemented. In comments made yesterday the President emphasised that his priority is to "address" the US current …
RUSI Piece on Us Policy- link below
Some clients are having trouble accessing the RUSI piece on US Policy. This is because they have not signed up for their own Quantum Strategy (QS) account and set a password. A reminder on how to do this will be sent shortly. In the meantime, here is direct link to the RU…