News Library
Showing All Results
Middle East: The Inevitable War That'll Matter to Markets
A war on Iran's nuclear assets is inevitable within a year. That is the geopolitical event that will produce a market meltdown because any attack on nuclear weapons facilities raises the risk of the terminal value of your assets being zero,
Middle East- The Mullah’s Mad Gamble
I got the Iranian attack on Israel wrong. All now depends on Israel's targeting of its escalatory response. If Israel uses its intelligence to decapitate the Iranian regime (and the IRGC), as it did with Hezbollah, then the economic spillover effects (e.g. energy)) will be limit…
Money Talk with Peter Lewis: China Policy - assessing the equity market blow off and how sustainable it is
A great discussion of China's market ramp and its sustainability with Peter Lewis and Enzio Pfeil- everything from culture to Hayek
Russia - The Rubbish Budget
The Russian budget points the way to the increasing un-sustainability of the war for Moscow beginning 2025. The war does not matter to markets now. But it would if it ended. The peace dividend would be high.
RTHK: The Close - China's Big Bazooka
Why China's big Bazooka is creating a feeding frenzy in markets but will fail economically.
The Micro Podcast on Monday Macro
Harris more likely to win. Middle East why further Israeli escalation will not provoke Iranian reaction? What do Ishiba victory & coming elections mean for Asia? Ukraine whither now that Zelensky's visit to the US and the Peace plan has failed? China: why the big baz…
Mind the Gaps!
Mind the gaps between hopes and realities to come. Here are 5 gaps between investor assumptions and likely outcomes that underpin a bear market next year
Japan- The LDP leadership election - Why leadership matters
Leadership matters in Japan with the biggest impact being on regional security
RTHK The Close: a discussion of Central Banks, China Stimulus and the Global Economy
The Fed too much too early and China the Great Leap Backwards??
La France Mal Foutue
Why the Barnier government will make matters worse for France, the economy and Europe.