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Arming For War
The markets make no allowance for the diruption of economic nationalism, the destruction of global alliances and the the preparation of inevitable war. This report rips the veil of denial with 5 bullet points on one page.
Divorce a l'Americain
Divorce a l'Americain The Liberal World Order and NATO are dead ducks. That opens the way for the Trump 2 Administration to hit Europe with very high (remedial/reciprocal) tariffs in April. Trump has no need for Europeans to help him with Ukraine. The EM…
The Countdown Days of Trump II
What does the Gaza ceasefire accord mean? The answer is a lot. It defines the Trump II administration’s foreign policy – peace through strength with decisive personalised interventions. It makes it clear that there’ll be no immediate Israeli attack on Iran sanctioned by the US. …
Astern!
We're in for a bear market in most asset classes during 2025. This piece integrates the macro and micro reasons for that conviction. The core conviction is that macro-risk is out of synch with market volatility. This will be resolved by market volatility rising as macro …
Baltic Undersea Electricity Cables – More Than Meets the Eye.
The sabotage of the Baltic EstLInk2 undersea electricity cable linking Finland to Estonia is not “story over”. The Baltic States are supposed to celebrate the end of their membership of BRELL (Belarus, Russia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) soviet era electricity supply grid in …
Middle East & Russia: Update
Update Middle East and Russia: Shifting Sands and Snow Drifts. I have been getting the views of some friends involved in the Middle East and others serving in Ukraine. Both sets of views are a bit different to what markets believe. It changes the timing and risks of events in my …
Russia Rough Update
Investment Conclusion. Since “Incidentally” was published ( Incidentally 11252024) explaining how things were going to get rough for Russia because of new sanctions on Russia’s financial system and the dark fleet, things have indeed started getting rough for Russia. This can have…
When Macro Will Matter
Macro uncertainty (high) and market volatility (low) have divorced. The piece explains why and when it will end. This will happen in the next twelve months. The catalyst will be conflicts that incur economic cost beyond what markets can ignore.
Russia - The Rubbish Budget
The Russian budget points the way to the increasing un-sustainability of the war for Moscow beginning 2025. The war does not matter to markets now. But it would if it ended. The peace dividend would be high.
Moscow - Red Sky At Night
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch.