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NDTV What will Make the Middle East matter to markets ?
NDTV -Middle East War: what will make the war matter to markets ?
ME- Portfolio on War Footing
ME- Portfolio on War Footing Investment Conclusion President Trump has shifted his stance to demanding “unconditional surrender” of Iran. If this is not just rhetoric or a negotiating ploy, it opens the way to escalation of the war. Israel and the US would then …
RTHK - The Close with Carolyn Wright & Richard Harris - the Middle East Conflict
RTHK - The Close with Carolyn Wright & Richard Harris - the Middle East Conflict The pause before the storm or a durable return to normal?
Peter Lewis Money Talk : ME war spill overs or lack of them
Peter Lewis Money Talk : ME war spill overs or lack of them. And what is the state of China's economy?
Israel Vs Iran Update: The Thin Edge of Judgement
Israel Vs Iran Update: The Thin Edge of Judgement Investment Conclusion The war will last longer than the Israeli lightning-strikes that the market is used to. It can also tip into a war focussed on regime-change (as Israel ambitions) or a pause for President Tr…
US Container Traffic Data - inward bound in TEUs
The Port of Los Angeles inward bound anticipated container traffic is set to run at 122k to 123k TEUs this week and next. This is slightly above the low levels of a year ago. However in the week ending July 7 volumes drop back to the average run rate of 100k TEUs. This is not a…
Middle East: Good Cop, Bad Cop & The Bactrian Camel
Middle East: Good Cop, Bad Cop & The Bactrian Camel Investment Conclusion The Israeli attack on Iran was coordinated with the US. The strategy is intended to force Iran to denuclearise on President Trump’s terms. Thus escalation will be limited for now as Iran ca…
RTHK The Close
RTHK The Close. What sort of macro scenario are markets telling us is in store? Why has the performance of equities, bonds and the US$ so diverged? Is there a feasible scenario for that to continue?
The Gormless Eejit!
The Gormless Eejit! Investment Conclusion Can equities continue to rise while US bonds and the US$ to fall? I got this wrong so far. This note looks at the economic logic of this divorce. It could continue if disruption is over. But that’s unlikely. The wider economi…
US Port of Los Angeles Anticipated Inward Container Arrival up to June 28 - Grounds for hope not ecstacy
Here is the anticipated inward US container port data for the next three weeks - as provided by the Port of Los Angeles. (The port of Los Angeles handles 40% of US containerised imports. 50% of its traffic is from China. That is why i use it as a proxy for US container …