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ME Energy: How Fast Will Supply Recover?
ME Energy How Fast Will Supply Recover No! I don’t think the ME Deal addresses any of the major issues or makes the world a better place. But it binds Iran and the US together with a common rope of self-interest. Iran, meaning the IRGC thugs, get back into the dollar flo…
Navigator: China - EU Trade Hostilities & Energy Myths
Navigator China EU Trade Hostilities & Energy Myths Four themes this week. (WhatsApp clients have received early briefing on themes in BLUE) 1. Trade War between the EU and China is now inevitable. 2. Chinese sell off of strategic crude oil reserves an…
Navigator: The Suicidal Sheep
Navigator: The Suicidal Sheep The divorce between equity markets and the Middle East crisis is irrational and unsustainable. The energy supply cliff we are approaching makes its collapse imminent.
A Strategy for Chokeholds
A Strategy for Chokeholds This report is about lessons to be learned from the Middle East blockades for the long term de-risking of portfolios and of supply chains. The former lessons are for portfolio managers and the latter for policy makers. The need is urgent because the…
Navigator - ME More War to seize Gulf
Navigator - ME More War to seize Gulf The failure of the Peace Talks means there will be more military action. It is unlikely that the US can afford to return the massive scale of war promised us before. Economically and politically, that is too costly. Inst…
Navigator: Middle East – The Barebones
Navigator: Middle East – The Barebones Here we look at 4 potential outcomes of the Middle East War through the lense of energy prices and demand destruction that matches the outcome. Demand destruction is measured in terms of: the required reduction in global energy c…
ME War – What Moves Matters
ME War – What Moves Matters. This report measures disruption from the Gulf and Red Sea combined. Despite already being disrupted the Red Sea can add a lot more in terms of energy, freight costs, food, fertilizer and metals. This will be an inevitability if President Trump e…
President Trump – Love Him or Hate Him – Don’t Underestimate Him !
President Trump – Love Him or Hate Him – Don’t Underestimate Him! Investment Conclusion: When a big ship goes full circle in a stormy sea, it creates what is known as a 'Duck Pool' of calm water (once use to land naval sea planes). That lasts a while before the big…
Middle East Trump Declares Total All Part Ceasefire
Trump: Donald J. Trump @realDonald Trump CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their …
ME- First the Bang. Date: Monday, June 23, 2025 Now the Whimper!
ME- First the Bang. Now the Whimper! Investment Conclusion The time of maximum risk is over. The Mullahs will shift to survival mode. They will not seek to escalate militarily – though a few revenge suicide bombings could happen. Any significant escalation by Iran …