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The AI Trade Too Big To Fail
David Roche argues that US AI investment, now over $3.1 trillion and rising, may be too big to fail without first failing. With China matching ~90% of US model performance at a fraction of the cost, and hundreds of billions in debt and off-balance-sheet commitments propping up hy…
See David Roche on NDTV today: Global Markets Face Middle East War, Russia Risk & Rising Inflation: Could India Still Benefit?
Oil at $85–95, grain prices up 12%, and a widening window for Russian gray-zone escalation in Europe: David maps the macro backdrop most portfolios aren't pricing in. Non-AI margins face a cost-push squeeze while leveraged AI valuations sit exposed to any rate response, a combina…
See David Roche on NDTV Profit: Oil Supply Crisis, AI Bubble Risk, and His Case for China and India
David Roche warns that a 16 to 18 million barrel per day global oil deficit, driven by falling Russian exports and surging Chinese demand, is colliding with an AI investment boom built on circular, highly leveraged financing. He sees no economic slowdown on the horizon to ease oi…
Peter Lewis Money Talk - AI Boom, China Equities, Oil Inventories
Catch David Roche on Peter Lewis' Money Talk podcast for June 3, as he examines whether the fever pitch in AI fundraising reflects genuine productivity gains or is repeating the excesses of prior tech cycles. He also considers at what point oil inventory levels move from a pri…
Peter Lewis Money Talk- The Summit, The Fed, The Gulf and AI
Peter Lewis Money Talk- Peter, Sunil Kashyap and I discuss: The Presidential Xi-Trump summit - What to expect = hot air+nothing; Why China will do little about the Gulf and why the Gulf crisis is a slow burn energy crisis with shortages set to worse;