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Quantum Strategy
Quantum Strategy never closes. So service is normal during the end of year vacation. I say thank you for your support and wish you all health, happiness and success, in whatever way you define it, next year and for many years to come.
CNBC Street Signs - Tanvir & I decode what the BoJ thinking is behind decision to stay on hold.
The BoJ chose to do nothing, On the one hand it is afraid to raise rates and then being surprised in a few months when tariffs create deflationary pressure so it has to reduce rates again. On the other hand, if it doesn't raise rates the yen weakens and imported inflation may s…
CNBC Street Signs- the Renminbi to fall to 8.50 to the USD!!!! Shock & Awe
China_ The Renminbi will fall to 8.50 to the US$ in a year as excess domestic liquidity from failed stimulus heads for the door and devaluation is used to limit damage from tariffs.
CNBC Market Alert;: US Tariffs:: Why Exceptionalism will Fail.
CNBC Market Alert;: US Tariffs:: Why Exceptionalism will Fail.
Peter Lewis Money Talk - The Fed removes the markets' drip feed. .....what does it mean for economies and markets
The Fed acts to reduce the number of interest rate cuts in 2025. Underlying this is that the Fed Funds Rate is already close to the neutral rate and more cuts are not needed given that the economy is motoring and inflation is a bit high. But the knock-on effects on markets arou…
US Fed - less cuts to come - “wannabe” but “won’t be” macro forecasts - and fudging the equilibrium rates
US Fed. Cut as expected = 25bp. One dissent - Beth M. Hammack. Positive for US$ Vs EURO & Yen. Forecast for policy rates in 2025 up quite sharply from Sept forecast to 3.9% from 3.4% . That would indicate fewer cuts . The FOMC expects policy rate cuts to continue into 2026 to joi…
RTHK The Close with Carolyn Wright & Xiaolin Chen & David Roche
China- has the up-cycle begun? The Fed decision. Korean crisis - you couldn't make it up! Japan- does the Tankan uptick mean anything. Will the BoJ cut.........and what the Bundesbank says about Bundesland!
The Micro Podcast on Macro Matters
Quantum Strategy - The Micro Podcast on Macro Matters: What's happened but matters still: China data; Germany - what the Bundesbank believes; Korea - the constitutional crisis; & France - why a decent PM makes no difference - no reform before the populists take over. And to come…
Update: China CEWC & Korea in Limbo & France in a hell of its own making.
Update China: CEWC: most of the statement is reiteration of previous stimulus packages. No new initiatives. No new money - in fact financing of the already announced interventions to stabilise the real estate market was omitted altogether.. Three shifts in language: 1. stimulatin…
US Fed & ECB
Update: ECB Fed BoJ Expect 25bp cut from the ECB today. Not 50 bp. The economy is bad enough for a 50bp cut But the ECB is still on the scenario that falling inflation offsets falling nominal wages so that rising real wages get spent as consumption. I doubt it , unlike the ECB, I…