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King Canute and the Bond Market
King Canute and the Bond MarketInvestment Conclusion The US Treasury is increasing purchases of long-term Treasuries. The stated objective is to improve liquidity. Nobody is fooled. The aim is to control and lower long term US Treasury yields. The policy is ill advised. It won’t …
US Fed – Warsh & The Little Trojan Ponies
US Fed – Warsh & The Little Trojan Ponies The FOMC meeting will change nothing. But the Dot Plots will be telling for the future. And the things to watch for are: • Hints at the end of forward guidance. • Replacing the inflation target currently used by the Fe…
The Warsh Identity
The Warsh Identity Investment Conclusion The appointment of Kevin Warsh to be the next Fed Chair is not at all bad. But it will not change the path of global de-dollarisation or the dilution of Fed independence. However it might slow the pace a little. Warsh is unli…
Odd bins
Odd bins Investment Conclusion Asian equities added as European equities reduced. A warning on Fed Independence. Shipping data show weakness in the US economy.
Odd bins
Odd bins Investment Conclusion Two portfolio adjustments have been made: one anticipating the fall of the Bayrou government in France on Sept 8 and the other following the downfall of Prime Minister Ishiba in Japan. One is to add back short 10yrs JGB positions…
Odd bins: Jackson Hole, Russia & Shipping
Odd bins: Jackson Hole, Russia & Shipping Investment Conclusion : Jackson Hole is a pivot in the Fed’s reaction function which now under-emphasises tariff effects on inflation and over-emphasises the weakening labor market. So more cuts than I thought (3 at least)…
RTHK The Close: Jackson Hole Pivot and President Trump’s Crusade Against the US Fed
RTHK The Close: Carolyn Wright, Richard Harris & David Roche discuss Jackson Hole policy shift and Trump’s plot against the US Fed. Market implications.
RTHK: The Close - Business & market Discussion with Carolyn Wright, David Roche and Richard Harris
So we know that when President Trump does not like reality he dismisses it and those who make him aware of it. Given the President's doubtful grip on reality we ask the question: How well is the the US economy actually doing? We get behind the volatility of people and data a…
Parsing FOMC Minutes and Tariff Announcements
Parsing FOMC Minutes and Tariff Announcements I parsed the FOMC minutes. I think the Fed will hang tough. Seems only Bowman & Waller want to cut. All the others more worried about inflation than the labour market. I expect inflation to rise sharply & durably in late su…
The ECB & the Fed -- Some Points to Ponder.
Central Banks There were a few interesting things from the ECB and FOMC meetings: ECB Mme LaGarde is convinced that the Eurozone recovery is happening and will accelerate as inflation falls and real incomes rise. Real income will rise because wage increases will …