News Library
Showing All Results
The Stable Coin Plot?
Executive Summary: The Stable Coin Plot? Stablecoins are the privatisation of money. They have the potential to: • Disrupt traditional banking systems. They can suck deposits out of the banking system leaving significant funding gaps for banks and the “real” economy. …
NDTV: Trump Needs A Deal Somewhere...David Roche On trump Tariff With India.
This broadcast looks at 2 topics. The future path of US Treasury Yields and whether the Indian market can escape Trump's tariffs threats against Russia and India - yes they are connected
President Trump’s Putin Pivot
President Trump’s Putin Pivot Investment Conclusion Trump’s Pivot on Putin is probably due to a sense of personnel betrayal. This is likely to make it more durable than if it was based on a moral policy vision. The pivot has the potential to change the battlefield in …
RTHK: The Close Business and Market Discussion - Jeff Cheung, David Roche & Richard Harris.- Is August 1st for TACO or for real?
Is the August 1st deadline set by Trump more bragadachio or for real? this podcast provides the answer. It's for real. And it goes into the reasons why.
Monday Odd Bins.
Shipping Data. So far, Chinese total exports have weathered US tariffs without a contraction. Exports to other places than the US have grown and more than offset losses to the US. That is "normal" as US exports are only US 500bn out of a total of nearly US$ 4 trn. The questi…
Trade Update
Trade Update Date: Saturday, July 12, 2025 Investment Conclusion The range and level of tariff threats made by the US this week is not something President Trump can go TACO on. Indeed the accusation that he is TACO on Tariffs probably is a factor behind the current…
Peter Lewis, Money Talk:
Peter Lewis: Money Talk.with David Roche. What is the significance to markets of Trump’s week of Pronouncements on tariffs. Here we discuss the economic significance of tariffs and for how long markets can ignore them.
RTHK: The Close - Business and Market Discussion with Carolyn Wright, David Roche and Richard Harris
RTHK The Close: Carolyn Wyat, Richard Harris, and David Roche talk about what China data is telling us about the effect of tariffs. Then we explain why markets will ignore the latest Trump pronouncements for a short whike but not forever,
Parsing FOMC Minutes and Tariff Announcements
Parsing FOMC Minutes and Tariff Announcements I parsed the FOMC minutes. I think the Fed will hang tough. Seems only Bowman & Waller want to cut. All the others more worried about inflation than the labour market. I expect inflation to rise sharply & durably in late su…
Things of note
Things of Note: Shipping The shipping data is interesting. US container imports for May were down 7% through all ports. US shipping exports (including non container traffic) were similarly weak. The Port of LA data continues to show a bid drop in container imports 3 wee…