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Middle East: Good Cop, Bad Cop & The Bactrian Camel
Middle East: Good Cop, Bad Cop & The Bactrian Camel Investment Conclusion The Israeli attack on Iran was coordinated with the US. The strategy is intended to force Iran to denuclearise on President Trump’s terms. Thus escalation will be limited for now as Ira…
RTHK The Close
RTHK The Close. What sort of macro scenario are markets telling us is in store? Why has the performance of equities, bonds and the US$ so diverged? Is there a feasible scenario for that to continue?
The Gormless Eejit!
The Gormless Eejit! Investment Conclusion Can equities continue to rise while US bonds and the US$ to fall? I got this wrong so far. This note looks at the economic logic of this divorce. It could continue if disruption is over. But that’s unlikely. The wider economi…
US Port of Los Angeles Anticipated Inward Container Arrival up to June 28 - Grounds for hope not ecstacy
Here is the anticipated inward US container port data for the next three weeks - as provided by the Port of Los Angeles. (The port of Los Angeles handles 40% of US containerised imports. 50% of its traffic is from China. That is why i use it as a proxy for US container …
The taxation of foreign investment in the US.
The taxation and breakdown of global capital flows (Written on a plane - unchecked, illiterate but important) QS strategy includes capital controls and taxation of foreign investment as part of the fragmentation of world order. It is also part of the potty e…
Korea After the Elections - wait!
Korea after the elections. Lee Jay-Keung has one big advantage in that his party controls parliament and he is president. But he faces many daunting challenges that he does not control: 1. The economy is 87% international trade. If US 25% tariffs are imposed it will p…
CNBC Squawk Box Asia
Martin, Christine and I debate the path of US fiscal policy. Implications for Fed policy and more….. what own instead of US Treasuries? Answer: Bunds………….gold and yen
RTHK: The Close: are tariffs old news?
Markets getting used to tariffs - The case for and agaist. What FOMC ‘s Waller says.
NDTV India: Tariffs & Why Trump will escalate & Potential Russian Escalation which would matter to markets
Three ideas: Trump is more likely to escalate than de-escalate after the International Trade Court ruling. What does this mean for markets. And the escaltion of Russian hostilities in Europe - one to watch and which markets are ignoring
Peter Lewis Money Talk:: Why on earth are the markets where they are?
Alex Wong, Peter Lewis and David Roche look at each major market and reason on why they are where they are and then whatvthat tells us about where they are going?