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China: No Pushover!
China: No Pushover! Investment Conclusion I would not be in any hurry to participate in the current market rally in equities, bonds or the US$. The US equity market today tells us the world is only 9% worse off than when President Trump took office and as…
China Spokesperson Statement on US Tariff Talks
China Spokesperson Statement on US Tariff Talks This is the statement (translated) this morning" “China has noted the repeated statements from senior US officials expressing a willingness to negotiate with China on tariff issues. At the same time, the US side has r…
CNBC Squawk Box - the Untimely Death of the Dollar & the Tragic Demise of US Exceptionalism
Why the US war on trade is fatal for US$ role as reserve currency and US Exceptionalism. What does this mean for US stocks & Treasuries?
RTHK: The Close with Carolyn Wright and Richard Harris
A great discussion on the power struggle between the US & China. Why China has escalation dominance. What it means for US assets, The European angle in new alliances with China?
Great Waves Look Over Others Coming In.
Great Waves Look Over Others Coming In. Investment Conclusion Stick to the conservative asset allocation in the Wealth Preservation Portfolio at the end of this note. President Trump’s postponement of reciprocal tariffs and conciliatory texts about China do not indic…
Russia - Ukraine War - Update 3 - The European & UKrainian Agreed Ceasefire Proposal
Below is the content of joint European & Ukrainian Ceasefire Proposal finalised in London this week. It was given to the US side before Witkoff's visit to Putin. We shall see what comes out of that. The relevance to investors is this. US objectives diverge inceasi…
Ukraine - Russia: ceasefire deal update 2
Ukraine. Rubio and Witkoff will not attend talks in London after Ukraine rejects parts of the Ceasefire Proposal (giving Crimea to Russia). Ex General Kellog will go instead. Putin will be delighted. Zelensky can now be framed as the reason why the Cease Fire P…
Update to The Truce Proposal Report (Tuesday, April 22, 2025)
The Truce Proposal Update. British newspaper (FT) article claims Putin ready to agree a ceasefire based on actual front lines and abandon precondition that the unoccupied remainder of the so-called (Witkoff) five Ukrainian provinces be handed over to Russia in advance o…
Peter Lewis Money Talk: a lively discussion on the Trade War theme of who will suffer most and blink first: the US or China
This is a good debate on the workings of a trade war, who pays and why the US suffers most. We spend time analysing why the US concept that it holds the cards is just plain wrong and is a miconception of escalatory dominance in a trade war. We look at who will suffer most and w…
The Truce Proposal
The Truce Proposal Investment Conclusion The joint US, EU & Ukrainian Ceasefire Proposal – outlined below - to be finalised in London this week, will be rejected by Moscow. This inevitably leads to escalation. Scenarios: President Trump withdraws from Europe …