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CNBC Squawk Box Asia David Roche & Martin Soong- the economic fall out of Trump Presidency
CNBC Squawk Box Asia David Roche & Martin Soong- the economic fall out of Trump Presidency and why geo economic uncertainty and market volatility are set re- marry after a long divorce!
The Winter of Discontent - The post Trump Global Scenario
I see the initial reaction of markets to the Trump victory as misplaced. Not that I thought KH was any good. But I do see high economic costs in Trump policies if implemented. I expect these to cause a bear market in most assets in 2025. Taiwan is my favourite short and the USD m…
Money Talk US Election, China Stimulus and the US Fed
Money talk with Peter Lewis, Mark Nicholson and Barry Wood on the US Election, China NPC Standing Committee & the US Fed
The Mini Podcast on Macro on a Monday
Quantum Strategy: The Mini-Podcast on Macro on a Monday: This weeks Macro Events: the US Election - what it means for markets - contrary to expectations a Trump victory would be bad for markets; The Fed - a 25 bp cut; China the National Peoples' Congress Standing Committee will …
Central Bank Forecast post US Non-Farm Payrolls
US Non-Farm Payrolls : The Non-Farm Payrolls report shows that only 12,000 positions were added in October (much lower than the exp. 100k, average compiled by Dow Jones) US Unemployment rate is unchanged at 4.1%, in line with expectations. The Bureau of Labor Statistic…
CNBC Squawk Box: Japanese Election Result- Meaning for Markets
Japanese elections mean weak coalition government. Markets will see Yen weaken - Boj stops normalising policy. Weak yen and likelihood of fiscal packages (to buy votes) means stringer equities. JGB tields will rise reflecting bigger deficits.
RTHK - The Close
RTHK Discussing: likely outcome of China's NPC Standing Committee on Nov 4 to 8; the results of the Japanese election what does instability do for assets; and the inevitable discussion of the US election,.
Japan- Turbulence in a Tea Cup
Japanese elections see LDP decimated. There will be a period of uncertainty and volatility for Japanese assets as a messy, weak, coalition is put together at the end of a protracted messier period of haggling. Such volatility is a storm in teacup in the global scale of things. …
Middle East: Limited Israeli Retaliation
Limited Israeli retaliation Against Iran will relieve markets. But it does not change outlook for a wider war to be waged by Israel to achieve regime chnage in Tehran targeting Iran's oil assets and nukes within 12 months. The current attack will not break the mould of market i…
When Macro Will Matter
Macro uncertainty (high) and market volatility (low) have divorced. The piece explains why and when it will end. This will happen in the next twelve months. The catalyst will be conflicts that incur economic cost beyond what markets can ignore.