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Astern!

Strategy Report ·David Roche ·08 Jan 2025

We're in for a bear market in most asset classes during 2025. This piece integrates the macro and micro reasons for that conviction. The core conviction is that macro-risk is out of synch with market volatility. This will be resolved by market volatility rising as macro …

#US#EU#Greyzone Warfare#Protectionism#Sanctions#Energy#China#Trump#Central Banks#Geopolitics#Volatility#Russia#Ukraine#Yen#US Fed#Middle East#Israel#Iran#ECB#Markets#IDF#Putin#Moscow#Macro Uncertainty#Market Volatility#Escalation#Trump Policy#Syria#French Sovereign Debt#Korea#Hamas#FOMC#US Federal Reserve#US$#Taiwan#S.Korea#Undersea Cable#China Stimulus#US Labor Market#Undersea Cables#Martial Law#Yoon Suk Yeol#Grayzone Warfare Read More
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Mini Podcast on Macro

Video ·David Roche ·19 Nov 2024

The Mini Podcast on Macro - that may matter to markets China - false dawn in retail & housing?. What Xi said to Biden to say to Trump: China's 4 Red Lines (actually 3) with one a tautological obsession which tells us what Xi is prioritising. What the official anonymous China…

#JGBs#China Stimulus#Global Outlook#China Real Estate#ECB#Yen#Volatility#Geopolitics#Sanctions#China#Trump#US Election#Industrial Raw Materials#Politics#Protectionism#Geo-economics#Geostrategy#World#Trade#Xi#Biden Read More
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Portfolio Implications of Trump II

Strategy Report ·David Roche ·18 Nov 2024

The Second Trump Administration stands up-front and central to any market forecast this year. It is not an add-on to any existing macro picture or cycle. It is hard not to predict the future without looking through a mirror that reflects everything you like or hate about the Ma…

#Technology#Greyzone Warfare#World#EU#Geostrategy#Tectonic Shifts#Protectionism#Cold War#Geo-economics#Tariffs#Industrial Raw Materials#US Election#Trump#Monetary Policy#Geopolitics#Volatility#Ukraine#US Fed#Draghi#EU Commission#EU Parliament#Recession#China Real Estate#China Stimulus#Trump Victory Read More
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CNBC Asia Squawk Box

The BoJ, The Yen and Global Liquidity

Television ·David Roche ·13 Aug 2024

Yen Strength - will Japan suck global liquidity dry?

#Yen#Global Liquidity#Volatility#Central Banks#Asia#Bank of Japan Read More
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Troubles Weekend

Strategy Report ·David Roche ·05 Aug 2024

Recession is the new cloud in the blue sky over markets. The markets now know the colour of fear. Recession is not for now. But fear is. Here's why!

#US#Kamala Harris#Monetary Policy#US Election#Trump#Politics#Volatility#Recession Read More
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Globalisation And Populism

Archive Report ·David Roche ·19 Nov 2018

This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch.

#Volatility#Trade#US#Growth#Inflation#Strategy Archive#Europe#Equities#Bonds#Globallisation#P populism Read More
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EM Outta Here

Archive Report ·David Roche ·20 Jun 2013

This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch.

#Middle-Income Trap#Asset Purchase Programme#Foreign Capital Inflows#High-Income Economies#Poland#Mexico#Federal Reserve#Strategy Archive#Interest Rates#Debt#Central Banks#Volatility Read More
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Monetary Policy Divorce

Archive Report ·David Roche ·08 Mar 2011

This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch.

#Yen#Monetary Policy#Central Banks#Volatility#Equities#Bank of Japan#US Dollar#Economy#Strategy Archive#Federal Reserve#European Central Bank#Bonds (Government & Corporate) Read More
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QE2 - A Recipe For Volatility

Archive Report ·David Roche ·26 Oct 2010

This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch.

#Financial markets#United States#Federal Reserve#Strategy Archive#Economy#Inflation#Volatility#Monetary Policy Read More
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Hitchhikers Guide To The Post Credit Crisis World

Archive Report ·David Roche ·28 Jun 2010

This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch.

#Volatility#Central Banks#Finance#Markets#Economic Growth#Strategy Archive#Government Policies#Credit Crisis#Equity Returns#Deflation Read More
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