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The Micro Podcast on Macro Matters
Quantum Strategy - David Roche - The Mini Podcast on Macro Matters: The Data: China's NBS PMIs and Industrial Profits. DeepSeek - the deeper meaning of disruption. Trump the first week- the economic consequences of ripping up Alliances. The Fed - when will Trump …
Peter Lewis Money Talk
Discussion with Mark Nicholson, Barry Wood and Peter Lewis about: 1. are Tariffs the only answer to China surpluses and everyone else's deficits. 2.What are China's booming exports telling us about future export demand. 3. Is shins really refocusing stimulus on creating consum…
FOMC - the future confusion.
FOMC - the future confusion. Some FOMC members included estimates of President Trump's mooted Tariff and Immigration policies in their "dot" estimates. One did not. And some didn't say. Some argued that such policies could damage the inflation outlook. Some obviously did no…
Astern!
We're in for a bear market in most asset classes during 2025. This piece integrates the macro and micro reasons for that conviction. The core conviction is that macro-risk is out of synch with market volatility. This will be resolved by market volatility rising as macro …
The Micro-Podcast on Macro Matters
The Micro-Podcast on Macro Matters What data matters this week: EU PMI's; Caixin PMI's; The US Fed Minutes; and Friday's US Jobs Report. The Three Macro-economic and Four Geopolitical Causes of the Coming Bear Market.
The Micro Podcast on Macro Matters
Quantum Strategy - David Roche: The Micro Podcast on Macro Matters. The 5 things that could go wrong or right next year. The data for this week
RTHK The Close with Carolyn Wright.
All the Big Things that could go wrong or right next year. A tour de force and tour du monde with the David Roche and Carolyn Wright.
CNBC: Europe: Steve & I on whether the only word we need to learn to pronounce next year is "Trump" to which we added Xi, Putin ...
A short history of 2025 - starting with how the reign of Trump could go wrong or right and then applying the same doomster methodology to reading the cards for Xi and Putin.......finishing with a modest forecast for the little old UK.
US Fed - less cuts to come - “wannabe” but “won’t be” macro forecasts - and fudging the equilibrium rates question.
US Fed. Cut as expected = 25bp. One dissent - Beth M. Hammack. Less cuts to come. Positive for US$ Vs EURO & Yen. “Wannabe” but “won’t be” macro forecasts - and fudging the equilibrium rates question. But this piece explains why US equilibrium Fed Fund Rates is 4%. US Fed won't c…
US Fed - less cuts to come - “wannabe” but “won’t be” macro forecasts - and fudging the equilibrium rates
US Fed. Cut as expected = 25bp. One dissent - Beth M. Hammack. Positive for US$ Vs EURO & Yen. Forecast for policy rates in 2025 up quite sharply from Sept forecast to 3.9% from 3.4% . That would indicate fewer cuts . The FOMC expects policy rate cuts to continue into 2026 to joi…