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A Strategy for Chokeholds
A Strategy for Chokeholds This report is about lessons to be learned from the Middle East blockades for the long term de-risking of portfolios and of supply chains. The former lessons are for portfolio managers and the latter for policy makers. The need is urgent because the…
ME Escalation – The Start of the Oil Stop
ME Escalation – The Start of the Oil Stop Escalation of the Gulf makes the US policy of cutting off Iran’s oil revenues much more effective. The struggle within the Iranian regime, with the hardliners gaining ascendancy at the moment, makes a negotiated settlement with …
ME – Cutting to the Quick
ME – Cutting to the Quick The US blockade so far appears to be only partially successful in halting Iranian oil shipments or restoring freedom of navigation using the Omani exit route from the Straits of Hormuz (SoHo). The continued flow of oil from Iran will ease s…
Navigator - ME More War to seize Gulf
Navigator - ME More War to seize Gulf The failure of the Peace Talks means there will be more military action. It is unlikely that the US can afford to return the massive scale of war promised us before. Economically and politically, that is too costly. Inst…
The Defeat of the Deal.
The Defeat of the Deal. This deal is taco with a price tag. For markets no war is a win. For investors it leaves us in Limbo- not Heavan or Hell. For the Iranian regime they emerge as the strategic victor from the war. It achieves lots of IRGC objectiv…
Navigator: Middle East – The Barebones
Navigator: Middle East – The Barebones Here we look at 4 potential outcomes of the Middle East War through the lense of energy prices and demand destruction that matches the outcome. Demand destruction is measured in terms of: the required reduction in global energy c…
ET Now News: David Roche: The Gulf! 3 Outcomes & 3 Oil Prices - Demand Destruction & Supply Chain Transmission Slowness!
This broadcast by ET Now is different! It looks at the impact of legnthy supply chains upon the energy crises in oil importing markets. It examines what amount of demand destruction and what level of oil prices would overcome the inadequacy of supply due to the ME War (a hole of…
ME War – What Moves Matters
ME War – What Moves Matters. This report measures disruption from the Gulf and Red Sea combined. Despite already being disrupted the Red Sea can add a lot more in terms of energy, freight costs, food, fertilizer and metals. This will be an inevitability if President Trump e…
NDTV President Trump & the ME: Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory! Who foots the Bill?
Trump is snatching defeat from the jaws of victory at the expense of the world.
Peter Lewis Money Talk: The Interesting Question of What A Defeated Trump. Would Leave in His Wake?
Peter Lewis Money Talk An in-depth look at the nature of the Middle East energy crisis. Why it will outlast the US War. And what happens geopolitically, economically to the region and to markets if a defeated Trump goes home?