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The Micro Podcast on Macro Matters
The Micro Podcast on Macro Matter. Trump's tariffs and China's measured but lethal response. Netanyahu manipulated Trump into cementing him in office as Israel's PM. That makes more war in Gaza more likely. And does it mean that Netanyahu will be able to manipulate Tr…
The Countdown Days of Trump II
What does the Gaza ceasefire accord mean? The answer is a lot. It defines the Trump II administration’s foreign policy – peace through strength with decisive personalised interventions. It makes it clear that there’ll be no immediate Israeli attack on Iran sanctioned by the US. …
US Sanctions - Russian Oil Tanks
Russia Sanctions & Oil. New US Sanctions are e nough to keep Brent between US$ 80-90 bbl and to heft shipping rates for legitimate tanker fleets. A Trump embargo on Iranian oil shipments could add to pricing pressure., Russia accounts for about 13% of global crude pro…
Astern!
We're in for a bear market in most asset classes during 2025. This piece integrates the macro and micro reasons for that conviction. The core conviction is that macro-risk is out of synch with market volatility. This will be resolved by market volatility rising as macro …
The Micro Podcast on Macro Matters.
Quantum Strategy - David Roche - The Micro Podcast on Macro! Sign on for Free Research Trial: https://www.QuantumStrategy.org Coming up his week: - The pulling forward of demand in China that will create gaps in demand later: Exports, Consumer Durables, Autos and…
Syria: Now for the Bad News
Syria will not be a unitary state. Syria's fragmentation is driven by internal ethnic splits and by external players such as Turkey, Iran and Iraq. Syria is descending into internal conflict. But any power configuration is going to be anti-Iranian. Iran will be deprived of its …
RTHK The Close with Carolyn Wright.
All the Big Things that could go wrong or right next year. A tour de force and tour du monde with the David Roche and Carolyn Wright.
Quantum Strategy David Roche - The Mini Podcast of Macro That Matters to Markets!
Quantum Strategy David Roche - The Mini Podcast of Macro That Matters to Markets! China's deflation continues- why it matters? Syria- the two scenarios and how critical they are. ECB - what to expect. US Inflation - service price figures critical
Middle East – Syria - The End of the Bashar al-Assad regime.
Investment Conclusion Winners: Israel & the US. Losers: Russia & Iran. Supportive of markets and the US$. The fall of Bashar al-Assad weakens Russia and Iran significantly. The winners are Turkey, Israel and the US. It is likely (60%) Syria will hang together as a unitary state (…
Update on Geopolitics that matter to markets
Update on Macro events that may matter to markets. France: I expect the Bernier government to fall and the budget not to be passed. It could happen today or later this week. The result will be a widening of French sovereign spreads to 110 BP over bunds. The Euro will be affected …