News Library
Showing All Results
US Middle East Position
QS expects no substantive US military action before the Midterms, with a third Strike Group giving only a short window for temporary escalation. The main risk is Iran escalating and putting further military stress on the Gulf States.
US Taps the SPR Again: A Political Gesture That Contradicts Its Own Story
THE BOTTOM LINE A pure political move. It may delay, but will not cancel, US executive market interference with diesel exports. No change to oil prices. The release will not alter global or US domestic prices for crude or refined products. But it contradicts the Administration. T…
Navigator: The Heart of Each Matter
Navigator: The Heart of Each Matter This piece looks at each of our major themes and highlights the critical investment variable that will make then succeed or fail. Middle East Oil Disruption - why the broadening, deepening conflict leaves Iran feeling stronger and the US lookin…
David Roche on NDTV Profit: Oil To Hit $125? David Roche's Stark Warning On Middle East Crisis
The Bab el Mandeb! A picnic spot on a beautiful beach? Not quite. It's the strait the Houthis just closed. David Roche on NDTV Profit: with Red Sea shipping disrupted and inventories thin, crude could hit $125/bbl if US-Iran tensions drag on and the US has few alternative route…
Global Choke Points: Oil, Grain and the Rising Risk to Trade
Four maritime choke points are disrupting global trade at once: Middle East oil shipments have collapsed to 3.1mn bpd from 17mn bpd in three weeks, while the MoLoCHKa offensive and Panama Canal restrictions put roughly 22% of global grain trade at risk. This note maps the suppl…
_Thumbnail.jpeg)
Why Hasn't the Oil Price Gone Stratospheric? (Client Q&A)
Gulf paralysis has removed an estimated 20mn bpd of crude from global markets — around 12% of world consumption once diverted pipeline flows and shadow-tanker volumes through Hormuz are netted out. This note walks through David Roche's supply-deficit arithmetic, identifies Chin…
ME OIL SUPPLY SHOCK: SENSITIVITY TO A GULF BREAKDOWN
US strikes on IRGC facilities have slashed Gulf oil flow to 2mn bpd, pushing the global supply deficit to 14mn bpd. David Roche's sensitivity analysis shows this justifies spot Brent at $85-90 now, climbing to $95+ within two months as OECD inventories race toward their reserv…
David Roche Featured on Peter Lewis' Money Talk
David Roche, President and Global Strategist at Quantum Strategy, joins this Wednesday's episode of Peter Lewis' Money Talk podcast alongside Tim Huxley, Chairman of Mandarin Shipping. Bringing a view from Japan is Nick Smith, Japan strategist at CLSA.
See David Roche's Stark Warning! Oil At $90 Could Be Closer Than Markets Think | Business News | ET Now
Catch David Roche on ET Now as he offers a cautious take on the global economy, warning that ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt oil markets and push crude prices toward $90 a barrel. He also flags concerns about rising bond yields, inflation, and whether the…
Navigator – What the Revised Energy Deficit Does to GDP
Navigator – What the Revised Energy Deficit Does to GDP. (An earlier abbreviated text of this piece was sent to clients on the WhatsApp service at the weekend. Their savvy comments inspired revisions to the original now incorporated below.) New data and field work…