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Whispers from Implausibility
Whispers from Implausibility. If you believe in an effective peace deal, then forget oil! The real plate-shift will be China and the EU. If peace breaks out Russia can offer China little – economically speaking. The US won’t. And the EU must. Europe an…
Navigator
This week we publish "The 8 Disruptions" or why consensus flat world forecasts are wrong. The BoJ will be key in first stage of the battle for central bank independence in Japan . We expect it raise rate to 0.75bp. But if Ueda chickens out JGB 1pyr yields will decisive…
Time Past & Time Future
Time Past & Time Future. What this piece discusses: Why markets are where they are - across all categories? Six drivers are isolated. Can what got us here take us further? What would have to happen for that be our fate? What do consensus forecast expect for 2025?…
Navigator (The Replacement of Oddbins)
Navigator. The QS team tells me that “Odd bins” is a bad name because investors don’t want to look for research in a bin & my writings are garbage enough without associating them with a bin. So the new name is “Navigator”. Investment themes: Markets could be…