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Navigator: Applets
Investment Conclusion For 15 years macro events mattered less to economies and to you. The forecasting of macro events got better. But the outcomes were less telling economically & financially. There is now evidence this is reversing. Here’s why! Some very potent events with big …
US Derivatives: Small Tail to Wag Big Dog
INVESTMENT CONCLUSION The bottom line of all the bottom lines is higher inflation, interest rate stress in AI and private credit, and central banks forced to tighten. US energy prices go up, not down. Global refined product supply falls, agriculture takes another supply side hit,…
US Diesel – Another Dose of Divine Intervention?
US Diesel – Another Dose of Divine Intervention? The US midterm elections make market interference to lower domestic energy costs attractive politically - for populists. But it is likely to be a macro-S**T show of epic proportions. Read on for the arguments. The Wealth Preservati…
Greenland: The Deal and Its Northern Shadow
The Trump Greenland Deal is a lot more than a rejig of the 1951 Agreement to grant the US more military and economic rights in Greenland. It goes far beyond that. It is a pretty significant building block in Trump’s Donroe Hemispheric Architecture and a major retreat by the EU an…
The Berlin Trilemma
Three Länder elections in three weeks, one uncomfortable trilemma. Saxony-Anhalt normalised the AfD, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern showed the SPD can still hold the line, and Berlin proved the populist vote has no fixed home — Berliners chose Die Linke, not the AfD. Chancellor Merz can'…
Conviction 4 — Putin Prepares
Conviction 4 — Putin Prepares Putin has lost 1.5 million soldiers, dead and wounded, with monthly losses now outpacing recruitment by nearly 2 to 1. Quantum Strategy's David Roche reads the math as unsustainable, and argues it's pushing toward a calibrated escalation designed to …
Conviction 3 — The Hunger Wave Inflation Tsunami
Conviction 3 — The Hunger Wave Inflation Tsunami Black Sea shipping has effectively stopped, leaving the world short 26mn tonnes of grain, yet prices have barely moved this year to reflect it. Quantum Strategy's latest Navigator tracks how that chokehold is already showing up in …
Conviction 2 - Middle East OIL
Conviction 2 — ME Oil Everyone's fighting over whose Hormuz-escaping barrel count is bigger this week. Quantum Strategy cuts through the noise with two numbers that matter: an 8mn bpd crude deficit against peacetime supply, which widens to a 12mn bpd refined product shortfall onc…
Conviction 1 - AI and the Human Selfless Pause
Ten of the biggest names in US AI just called for a development pause, framed as an ethics story. Quantum Strategy's latest Navigator reads it differently: US closed-end model developers are carrying debt-funded compute build-outs that higher rates are straining, just as China's …
Navigator: Convictions
Navigator: Convictions! The single biggest theme is the inflation tsunami being generated by food and energy. This will get worse. The Safe Haven Assets are doing their job. They will go on doing so. My two big beliefs: Energy and food price inflation are not over and are multi-y…