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RTHK The Close with Carolyn Wright & Xiaolin Chen & David Roche
China- has the up-cycle begun? The Fed decision. Korean crisis - you couldn't make it up! Japan- does the Tankan uptick mean anything. Will the BoJ cut.........and what the Bundesbank says about Bundesland!
The Micro Podcast on Macro Matters
Quantum Strategy - The Micro Podcast on Macro Matters: What's happened but matters still: China data; Germany - what the Bundesbank believes; Korea - the constitutional crisis; & France - why a decent PM makes no difference - no reform before the populists take over. And to …
Update: China CEWC & Korea in Limbo & France in a hell of its own making.
Update China: CEWC: most of the statement is reiteration of previous stimulus packages. No new initiatives. No new money - in fact financing of the already announced interventions to stabilise the real estate market was omitted altogether.. Three shifts in langu…
US Fed & ECB
Update: ECB Fed BoJ Expect 25bp cut from the ECB today. Not 50 bp. The economy is bad enough for a 50bp cut But the ECB is still on the scenario that falling inflation offsets falling nominal wages so that rising real wages get spent as consumption. I doubt it , unlike the…
Middle East & Russia: Update
Update Middle East and Russia: Shifting Sands and Snow Drifts. I have been getting the views of some friends involved in the Middle East and others serving in Ukraine. Both sets of views are a bit different to what markets believe. It changes the timing and risks of …
RTHK The Close with Carolyn Wright.
China - deflation. What will the Chinese Central Economic Work Conference do- very little new but defines fiscal and monetary stimulus. Korea - how serious for assets is the power vacuum at the top. Trump are his appointments congruent with his views. Will he deliver on his p…
Quantum Strategy David Roche - The Mini Podcast of Macro That Matters to Markets!
Quantum Strategy David Roche - The Mini Podcast of Macro That Matters to Markets! China's deflation continues- why it matters? Syria- the two scenarios and how critical they are. ECB - what to expect. US Inflation - service price figures critical
Middle East – Syria - The End of the Bashar al-Assad regime.
Investment Conclusion Winners: Israel & the US. Losers: Russia & Iran. Supportive of markets and the US$. The fall of Bashar al-Assad weakens Russia and Iran significantly. The winners are Turkey, Israel and the US. It is likely (60%) Syria will hang together as a u…
Barnier is gone - why the market indifference.
France. Poor Barnier is gone. And the markets are treating a rudderless France with equanimity. The Euro is at 1.05 to the USD and French 10 yr Sovereign debt is static yielding 2.05% with an unchanged 84 bp spread to Bunds. And CAC futures are up a tiny bit. That was the …
Korea Martial Law - Coup in a Tea Cup
Korea Martial Law. I don't own any S. Korean assets or the currency. If you do, stay calm. This coup seems so bonkers - even by Korean standards - that it'll be gone and forgotten in a short time. If the process of impeachment of the president takes longer the KRW mi…