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Investment Conclusion For 15 years macro events mattered less to economies and to you. The forecasting of macro events got better. But the outcomes were less telling economically & financially. There is now evidence this is reversing. Here’s why! Some very potent events with big …
Conviction 4 — Putin Prepares
Conviction 4 — Putin Prepares Putin has lost 1.5 million soldiers, dead and wounded, with monthly losses now outpacing recruitment by nearly 2 to 1. Quantum Strategy's David Roche reads the math as unsustainable, and argues it's pushing toward a calibrated escalation designed to …
David Roche forudså Sovjetunionens fald. Nu giver han Putin ét år (He was one of the few who predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union. Now he gives Putin one year)
📰 He was one of the few who called the collapse of the Soviet Union, decades before it happened, and later called Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine a year before it happened. Now veteran strategist David Roche says Vladimir Putin has one year left. In this interview with Be…
Russia: Increasing Signs of Economic Bankruptcy and Desperation
Vladimir Putin has quietly opened the door to seizing almost any privately owned enterprise in Russia. David Roche unpacks the August 24 decree, its indefinite seizure mechanism, and why the move reads less like strength than fiscal strain. Essential reading for anyone tracking s…
Ukraine: US 28 Point Plan is a Yalta moment for Europe.
President Trump's 28-Point Peace Plan. President Trump's 28-Point Peace Plan is the often repeated but now irrefutably defined proof that the US in on the same page as Putin about the causes and resolutions of Russia's war in Ukraine. But this time is different…
Russia – This is not Roulette
Russia – This is not Roulette. Investment Conclusion; This is not Russian Roulette. Every chamber in the gun is loaded. It is pointing right at the heart of Europe. The new “sheriff in town” is walking to other way down the dusty track away from the European village.…
Russia escalates.
War Escalation in Europe. The multiple Russian drones intrusion into Polish airspace and the kinetic military action to shoot them down is serious escalation. This is coming on top of increasing tension in the Baltic and subversion on land in Sweden and the Baltic states as w…
Odd bins: Jackson Hole, Russia & Shipping
Odd bins: Jackson Hole, Russia & Shipping Investment Conclusion : Jackson Hole is a pivot in the Fed’s reaction function which now under-emphasises tariff effects on inflation and over-emphasises the weakening labor market. So more cuts than I thought (3 at least)…
Shifting Sands
Shifting Sands Investment Conclusion The result of the Japanese election heralds a period of weak government at a critical time. That undermines the safe haven status of the Yen. The Yen long position in the Wealth Preservation Portfolio is being sold. A short…
Update to The Truce Proposal Report (Tuesday, April 22, 2025)
The Truce Proposal Update. British newspaper (FT) article claims Putin ready to agree a ceasefire based on actual front lines and abandon precondition that the unoccupied remainder of the so-called (Witkoff) five Ukrainian provinces be handed over to Russia in advance o…