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Investment Conclusion For 15 years macro events mattered less to economies and to you. The forecasting of macro events got better. But the outcomes were less telling economically & financially. There is now evidence this is reversing. Here’s why! Some very potent events with big …
Conviction 4 — Putin Prepares
Conviction 4 — Putin Prepares Putin has lost 1.5 million soldiers, dead and wounded, with monthly losses now outpacing recruitment by nearly 2 to 1. Quantum Strategy's David Roche reads the math as unsustainable, and argues it's pushing toward a calibrated escalation designed to …
Welcome Back! Here's What Moved While You Were Away.
Welcome back from the summer break. In our view, what moved in your absence isn't seven unrelated headlines but one connected regime shift, spanning AI, energy and food, central bank independence, the dollar, and geopolitics and we've pulled it all together in the attached client…
Russia: Increasing Signs of Economic Bankruptcy and Desperation
Vladimir Putin has quietly opened the door to seizing almost any privately owned enterprise in Russia. David Roche unpacks the August 24 decree, its indefinite seizure mechanism, and why the move reads less like strength than fiscal strain. Essential reading for anyone tracking s…
Putin’s Political Longevity – A Framework of Considerations
Putin’s Political Longevity – A Framework of Considerations by RUSI (Royal United Services Institute), Russia’s leadership vulnerability score has risen from 6.5 to 7.8 in just a year. Quantum Strategy's David Roche uses a historical framework, tested against the USSR in 1991, Eg…
Iran: Force Posture Points to Paralysis, Not Invasion
US force posture in the Gulf points to an infrastructure-focused campaign against Iran rather than invasion — while a weakening Putin raises the odds of a calibrated escalation in Europe, kept deliberately below the NATO Article 5 threshold.
Russia – This is not Roulette
Russia – This is not Roulette. Investment Conclusion; This is not Russian Roulette. Every chamber in the gun is loaded. It is pointing right at the heart of Europe. The new “sheriff in town” is walking to other way down the dusty track away from the European village.…
Russia escalates.
War Escalation in Europe. The multiple Russian drones intrusion into Polish airspace and the kinetic military action to shoot them down is serious escalation. This is coming on top of increasing tension in the Baltic and subversion on land in Sweden and the Baltic states as w…
Shifting Sands
Shifting Sands Investment Conclusion The result of the Japanese election heralds a period of weak government at a critical time. That undermines the safe haven status of the Yen. The Yen long position in the Wealth Preservation Portfolio is being sold. A short…