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Update: China CEWC & Korea in Limbo & France in a hell of its own making.
Update China: CEWC: most of the statement is reiteration of previous stimulus packages. No new initiatives. No new money - in fact financing of the already announced interventions to stabilise the real estate market was omitted altogether.. Three shifts in language: 1. stimulatin…
Update on Geopolitics that matter to markets
Update on Macro events that may matter to markets. France: I expect the Bernier government to fall and the budget not to be passed. It could happen today or later this week. The result will be a widening of French sovereign spreads to 110 BP over bunds. The Euro will be affected …
Russia Rough Update
Investment Conclusion. Since “Incidentally” was published ( Incidentally 11252024) explaining how things were going to get rough for Russia because of new sanctions on Russia’s financial system and the dark fleet, things have indeed started getting rough for Russia. This can have…
Incidentally
“War is not caused by incidents, but its timing and trajectory often are. " There are three macro “incidents” that may matter to markets. 1. The new US comprehensive sanctions on Russian financial intermediaries may cripple the EU’s ability to pay for its USD 12bn a year imports …
When Macro Will Matter
Macro uncertainty (high) and market volatility (low) have divorced. The piece explains why and when it will end. This will happen in the next twelve months. The catalyst will be conflicts that incur economic cost beyond what markets can ignore.
China - The Heart of the Blather
China- why the stimulus packages won't work and what it means. China remains uninvestable
Japan- The LDP leadership election - Why leadership matters
Leadership matters in Japan with the biggest impact being on regional security
Autumn Sonata
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch.
Autumn Sonata
Economics & Markets after Autumn makes the blooms fade & some icy winter fingers appear.
China - the Plenum
The Plenum: Much ado about nothing Well, the third Plenum went according to script. Nothing, nothing and then nothing. Report follows.