Reports Library
Showing All Results
US Middle East Position
QS expects no substantive US military action before the Midterms, with a third Strike Group giving only a short window for temporary escalation. The main risk is Iran escalating and putting further military stress on the Gulf States.
Transatlantic Fuel Standoff
How US pressure on Europe’s diesel reserves could affect prices and energy security. The United States is reportedly asking France and Germany to release diesel from Europe’s emergency reserves. Washington wants to lower fuel prices quickly. Europe wants to keep enough fuel in re…
Conviction 2 - Middle East OIL
Conviction 2 — ME Oil Everyone's fighting over whose Hormuz-escaping barrel count is bigger this week. Quantum Strategy cuts through the noise with two numbers that matter: an 8mn bpd crude deficit against peacetime supply, which widens to a 12mn bpd refined product shortfall onc…
Arctic Shipping: Promise, Limits and Strategic Reality
Arctic Shipping: Promise, Limits and Strategic Reality Arctic shipping is no longer pure speculation, but is it a real challenge to Suez and Malacca? David Roche weighs Russia's Northern Sea Route against the numbers: the vessel-size limits, icebreaker costs and insurance risk st…
Has Saudi Arabia Diverted Its Oil Flows Through Suez?
Saudi Arabia has offset only about half its lost Bab-el-Mandeb shipments via the northern Suez route, leaving a net ~1mn bpd supply loss and pushing the Global Daily Crude Oil Deficit to 14.6mn bpd.
Iran: Force Posture Points to Paralysis, Not Invasion
US force posture in the Gulf points to an infrastructure-focused campaign against Iran rather than invasion — while a weakening Putin raises the odds of a calibrated escalation in Europe, kept deliberately below the NATO Article 5 threshold.
Global Choke Points: Oil, Grain and the Rising Risk to Trade
Four maritime choke points are disrupting global trade at once: Middle East oil shipments have collapsed to 3.1mn bpd from 17mn bpd in three weeks, while the MoLoCHKa offensive and Panama Canal restrictions put roughly 22% of global grain trade at risk. This note maps the suppl…
_Thumbnail.jpeg)
Why Hasn't the Oil Price Gone Stratospheric? (Client Q&A)
Gulf paralysis has removed an estimated 20mn bpd of crude from global markets — around 12% of world consumption once diverted pipeline flows and shadow-tanker volumes through Hormuz are netted out. This note walks through David Roche's supply-deficit arithmetic, identifies Chin…
ME OIL SUPPLY SHOCK: SENSITIVITY TO A GULF BREAKDOWN
US strikes on IRGC facilities have slashed Gulf oil flow to 2mn bpd, pushing the global supply deficit to 14mn bpd. David Roche's sensitivity analysis shows this justifies spot Brent at $85-90 now, climbing to $95+ within two months as OECD inventories race toward their reserv…
Strait of Hormuz Exports Jump on July 1 — But the World Is Still Living Off Storage
The world is still running a 6mn bpd crude supply deficit and living off inventory to hide it. David Roche's latest tracker on Strait of Hormuz flows, tanker traffic, and the countdown clock on Gulf storage. Full report attached.