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Iran: Force Posture Points to Paralysis, Not Invasion
US force posture in the Gulf points to an infrastructure-focused campaign against Iran rather than invasion — while a weakening Putin raises the odds of a calibrated escalation in Europe, kept deliberately below the NATO Article 5 threshold.
Gold: The Central Banks Aren't Stopping
Central banks bought 41 tonnes of gold in May. Everyone but Russia and Turkey is buying. David Roche explains why sustained official-sector demand and China's steady move away from the dollar reinforce the case for gold support at US$4,000/oz.
Syria: Now for the Bad News
Syria will not be a unitary state. Syria's fragmentation is driven by internal ethnic splits and by external players such as Turkey, Iran and Iraq. Syria is descending into internal conflict. But any power configuration is going to be anti-Iranian. Iran will be deprived of its …
CNBC: Europe: Steve & I on whether the only word we need to learn to pronounce next year is "Trump" to which we added Xi, Putin ...
A short history of 2025 - starting with how the reign of Trump could go wrong or right and then applying the same doomster methodology to reading the cards for Xi and Putin.......finishing with a modest forecast for the little old UK.
Quantum Strategy David Roche - The Mini Podcast of Macro That Matters to Markets!
Quantum Strategy David Roche - The Mini Podcast of Macro That Matters to Markets! China's deflation continues- why it matters? Syria- the two scenarios and how critical they are. ECB - what to expect. US Inflation - service price figures critical
Update on Geopolitics that matter to markets
Update on Macro events that may matter to markets. France: I expect the Bernier government to fall and the budget not to be passed. It could happen today or later this week. The result will be a widening of French sovereign spreads to 110 BP over bunds. The Euro will be affected …
Turkey Mayoral Elections EDIT
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch.
Nagorno Karabakh - The Potential Spillovers
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch.
Turkey And Thailand - Backward And Forward
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch.
Turkey Elections
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch.