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Iran: Force Posture Points to Paralysis, Not Invasion
US force posture in the Gulf points to an infrastructure-focused campaign against Iran rather than invasion — while a weakening Putin raises the odds of a calibrated escalation in Europe, kept deliberately below the NATO Article 5 threshold.
Global Choke Points: Oil, Grain and the Rising Risk to Trade
Four maritime choke points are disrupting global trade at once: Middle East oil shipments have collapsed to 3.1mn bpd from 17mn bpd in three weeks, while the MoLoCHKa offensive and Panama Canal restrictions put roughly 22% of global grain trade at risk. This note maps the suppl…
Middle East Energy: How Fast Will Supply Recover? Watch the Ships, Not the Rigs
David Roche assesses why Middle East crude supply should recover faster than production capacity over the next six months, as Gulf shipping flows and a 300mb inventory buffer narrow the global oil deficit and push crude toward a $75–85/bbl range.
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Middle East Energy Update (WhatsApp sent to clients)
Middle East Oil Supply: David Roche's weekend WhatsApp update — now published in full for your reference.
The Fracturing of OPEC - UAE quits OPEC on May 1
The Fracturing of OPEC - UAE quits OPEC on May 1 UAE quitting OPEC means: · No change in oil prices or oil supply in short term as UAE oil outlets are constrained by Gulf blockades. · Long term UAE oil output could painlessly double to 6mn bpd. This would …
ME – What Matters Matter?
ME – What Matters Matter? We are probably at the point of maximum Iranian war disruption. Long oil hedge is being cut 50% and will be sold completely if Brent goes above US$100/bbl. The reasons: · Massive naval power being refocused on Gulf shipping security. So…
Iraq - Break Up Update
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch.