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Iran War-ning
Iran War-ning. Investment Conclusion. The arms build-up in the Middle East (ME) is consistent with war, not blockade, in coming days. The war aim will probably be to overthrow of the regime. Lesser war aims are possible, such as obliterating more Iranian ballistic mi…
Iran: The whole Hog?
I ran - The Whole Hog Investment Conclusion. War to achieve regime change in Iran is looking imminent. The initial result will be risk off and rising oil prices. But longer term a renascent Iran will reduce global oil prices by US$10-12/bbl. This is all set out in…
Iran – the Beginning of the End!
Iran – the Beginning of the End! It may take time. But all roads lead to the same outcome. Some are smooth. Others are bloody. But the Iranian regime is doomed. Compared to Venezuela re-integrating Iran into the comity of civilised nations will be a cinch. Econo…
Iran is unlikely to be a Venezuelan domino but, when the time comes, a domestic economic one.
Iran is unlikely to be a Venezuelan domino but, when the time comes, a domestic economic one.
The Iran Snapback - A Risk Asset Risk?
The Iran Snapback - A Risk Asset Risk? Investment Conclusion On August 28, 2025, the European signatories of the UN Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) activated a Snapback clause in the JCPOA that will reimpose sanctions on Iran after 30 days. This is on foot…
President Trump – Love Him or Hate Him – Don’t Underestimate Him !
President Trump – Love Him or Hate Him – Don’t Underestimate Him! Investment Conclusion: When a big ship goes full circle in a stormy sea, it creates what is known as a 'Duck Pool' of calm water (once use to land naval sea planes). That lasts a while before the big…
Israel Vs Iran Update: The Thin Edge of Judgement
Israel Vs Iran Update: The Thin Edge of Judgement Investment Conclusion The war will last longer than the Israeli lightning-strikes that the market is used to. It can also tip into a war focussed on regime-change (as Israel ambitions) or a pause for President Tr…
Middle East: Good Cop, Bad Cop & The Bactrian Camel
Middle East: Good Cop, Bad Cop & The Bactrian Camel Investment Conclusion The Israeli attack on Iran was coordinated with the US. The strategy is intended to force Iran to denuclearise on President Trump’s terms. Thus escalation will be limited for now as Iran ca…
Middle East – Iran – Update – Nukes
Iran's rising stockpile of weapons' grade uranium is proof Tehran is looking to nuclear weapons to replace its shattered proxies, Israel will not tolerate this. The timing of war and its scope is still towards end of this year or early 2026. But this is a guess, A lot depend…