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Navigator: Applets
Investment Conclusion For 15 years macro events mattered less to economies and to you. The forecasting of macro events got better. But the outcomes were less telling economically & financially. There is now evidence this is reversing. Here’s why! Some very potent events with big …
Welcome Back! Here's What Moved While You Were Away.
Welcome back from the summer break. In our view, what moved in your absence isn't seven unrelated headlines but one connected regime shift, spanning AI, energy and food, central bank independence, the dollar, and geopolitics and we've pulled it all together in the attached client…
AI's RPOs and Circular Equity Stakes
Following up on our last note on the AI build-out, RPOs aren't spreading risk, they're stacking it. David Roche argues the hyperscaler-to-lab financing chain layers debt twice over, largely off-balance sheet, while circular equity stakes add a fragile, correlated cushion rather t…
Navigator: Global Chokeholds and AI Chokepoints
Navigator: Global Chokeholds and AI Chokepoints This report looks at Global Chokeholds where geonomics strangles supply of food and energy: The Red Sea, The Gulf, The Black Sea and a few other seas like Azov and the Caspian. El Nino may shortly add the Panama Canal to the list wh…
AI and Lowly Common Sense
AI and Lowly Common Sense T his report analyses the competing AI business models of America and China. It predicts: 1. Which model will win. 2. What the economic consequences of winning or losing are for the US, China and the global AI ecosystem. 3…
Navigator: The Suicidal Sheep
Navigator: The Suicidal Sheep The divorce between equity markets and the Middle East crisis is irrational and unsustainable. The energy supply cliff we are approaching makes its collapse imminent.
Deep Seek - Deeply Seeking the Significance .
DeepSeek Disruption: Tech, Economic, Geopolitical DeepSeek disruption to AI Chatbots/LLMs, like ChatGPT4 and to suppliers of AI semiconductors like Nvidia, is significant. It can also change forecasts for ever rising electricity demand from data centres. But by corol…