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EU Sovereign Debt Crisis - The ECB Toolbox
The ECB will "do whatever it takes" in a Eurozone sovereign debt crisis, but not before spreads are much wider. QS maps the ECB tool box, from TPI and PEPP to OMT and the ESM, shows who authorises each tool, and explains why we stay short French and Spanish 10 yr bonds and the Eu…
EU Sovereign Debt Crisis
We are heading for an EU sovereign debt crisis. France has no political way out of crisis, Spain's youth-driven housing crisis is likely to bring right-wing populism to power, and Germany and Italy are little better. The ECB will ultimately step in rather than end the euro, but t…
Transatlantic Fuel Standoff
How US pressure on Europe’s diesel reserves could affect prices and energy security. The United States is reportedly asking France and Germany to release diesel from Europe’s emergency reserves. Washington wants to lower fuel prices quickly. Europe wants to keep enough fuel in re…
The Berlin Trilemma
Three Länder elections in three weeks, one uncomfortable trilemma. Saxony-Anhalt normalised the AfD, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern showed the SPD can still hold the line, and Berlin proved the populist vote has no fixed home — Berliners chose Die Linke, not the AfD. Chancellor Merz can'…
Deutschland Unter Allem
Deutschland Unter Allem The AfD victory wrecks Germany’s prospects of economic reforms and should destroy any vestiges of financial market optimism. That is a serious dough-nut hole in the core of Europe’s economic and political aspirations. And it calls into question the defence…
Saxony-Anhalt Election: Bad for Bunds & Should Be for the Euro
Saxony-Anhalt Election: Bad for Bunds & Should Be for the Euro The AfD's landslide win in Saxony-Anhalt, at nearly 44% of the vote, marks a new stage in German politics: coalition strategies built to contain extremist parties are visibly failing, and Chancellor Merz's federal coa…
Odd Bins - some portfolio chnages of consequence!
Odd Bins - some portfolio chnages of consequence! Investment Conclusion. The long Yen Vs US$ position is being reinstated. The long/overweight German equity positions is being sold. Risk factors for equities global equities are rising, not falling even if the threat of a re…
German Election Update: An Economy Class Seat Instead of 1st Class to the Right Destination
A Midnight Update on the German Elections. ( sorry for typos etc. they will be righted in the report version) On balance this was an ok result. Not a dream ticket, But one that will begin to move Germany towards econimic revival. Among European equities Germany is…
Germany - The Winds of Change?
Germany Bundestag Elections. A victory for a Grand Coalition led by the CDU’s Friedrich Merz, made up of the major parties (CDU/CSU + SPD plus possibly FDP or Greens), which controls two thirds of the seats in Bundestag & Bundesrat, would open the door to dramatic reform in Ger…
Is Germany a Casket Case?
Investment Conclusion. Germany is on the cusp of a major opportunity to reform its economy and galvanise that of the EU as well. The process is within its political grasp. If it lets it slip it could well be the EU that shatters on the floor. This piece is the storyline of how th…