Reports Library
Showing All Results
The X-Disruptions: A Mid-2026 Scorecard
We called eight "X-Disruptions" back in December 2025, so six months on, we graded our own homework. The verdict: Fed independence, BoJ/Yen stress, and Europe's defense build-out landed with striking precision, while our bearish equity call missed, but only on US/US-AI names, e…
NATO’S ANKARA DECLARATION: WALLPAPER OVER THE CRACKS!
NATO's Ankara summit avoided a public rupture with Trump but David Roche argues the declaration papers over a 50% cut in US assets in European NATO and a "new" Ukraine fund that's 40% recycled EU money. The real story: Europe hasn't told voters that guns will have to come out …
NATO SUMMIT: THE ALLIANCE’S FIVE-YEAR GAP
NATO's July 7 summit will be sold as a US win. The real story: a five-year capability gap Europe hasn't figured out how to pay for and a strategic pivot to the Pacific that no future president is likely to reverse.
The Real Davos Debate
The Real Davos Debate analyses the implications of accelerated European economic militarisation if President Trump dumps NATO. The costs, financing and fiscal and monetary implications are grouped under the headings of: Accelerating EU defence spending to 5% of GDP in…
Can Russia Sustain a 2nd Europe Front?
Can Russia Sustain a 2nd Europe Front? Introduction The report “Russia – This is not Roulette (Sept 9)” got lots of follow up questions. The trust of the ensuing discussion is about the economic sustainability of war for the Kremlin. This is what I write about below.…
Russia – This is not Roulette
Russia – This is not Roulette. Investment Conclusion; This is not Russian Roulette. Every chamber in the gun is loaded. It is pointing right at the heart of Europe. The new “sheriff in town” is walking to other way down the dusty track away from the European village.…
War Dividend
War Dividend A tectonic plateshift has started. There will be a War Dividend to recoup the Peace Dividend since the Fall of the Berlin Wall. Events in Europe will cause a global arms race as Alliances break down and nations and blocs “go it alone”. Defence demand will far exc…
Geo-economics: The 13 Prophesies of the Apocalypse
Here are 13 things that may happen as the Liberal World Order is replaced by the Unmentionable......... and how to protect yourself from the fallout!