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The X-Disruptions: A Mid-2026 Scorecard
We called eight "X-Disruptions" back in December 2025, so six months on, we graded our own homework. The verdict: Fed independence, BoJ/Yen stress, and Europe's defense build-out landed with striking precision, while our bearish equity call missed, but only on US/US-AI names, e…
US Fed – Warsh & The Little Trojan Ponies
US Fed – Warsh & The Little Trojan Ponies The FOMC meeting will change nothing. But the Dot Plots will be telling for the future. And the things to watch for are: • Hints at the end of forward guidance. • Replacing the inflation target currently used by the Fe…
The Warsh Identity
The Warsh Identity Investment Conclusion The appointment of Kevin Warsh to be the next Fed Chair is not at all bad. But it will not change the path of global de-dollarisation or the dilution of Fed independence. However it might slow the pace a little. Warsh is unli…
Odd bins
This Oddbins Some vital investment themes: Shipping - reinforced optimism. Trump "deal" with Xi changes nothing. And other shipping sector events reconfirm the need for massive shipbuilding and port investment in the US and for the US. US Supreme Court - almost all decisio…
Odd bins
Odd bins Investment Conclusion Asian equities added as European equities reduced. A warning on Fed Independence. Shipping data show weakness in the US economy.
Odd bins: Jackson Hole, Russia & Shipping
Odd bins: Jackson Hole, Russia & Shipping Investment Conclusion : Jackson Hole is a pivot in the Fed’s reaction function which now under-emphasises tariff effects on inflation and over-emphasises the weakening labor market. So more cuts than I thought (3 at least)…
The McKinley Factor
Investment Conclusion. Exceptionalism is not just about benefits but costs. The economic policies and geopolitical disruption of the second Trump Presidency are certainly exceptional but will incur more economic costs than benefits. These costs will be spread about the worl…
The Spectre Of Recession
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch.