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Odd bins: The Portfolio to match the Autumn Strategy Video …. & Shipping
Odd bins: The Portfolio to match the Autumn Strategy Video …. & Shipping Investment Conclusion The Autumn Strategy Video looks at upside and downside risks for financial markets. The upside risks from lower Fed rates are more than offset by the threats to F…
Quantum Strategy: The Autumn Strategy Video: What to expect in Fall
Quantum Strategy: The Autumn Strategy Video: What to expect this fall. Rather than send you a report taking stock of two way risks, here is a short video that does the job! This Autumn is unlikely to be "The season of mists and mellow fruitfulness". There…
US Tariffs: Judicial Disruption of Economic Disruption = > Disruption!
US Tariffs: Judicial Disruption of Economic Disruption = > Disruption! Investment Conclusion If the US Supreme Court backs the rulings of the two lower courts that the President’s use of the IEEPA to impose tariffs is mainly illegal, there will be a mess markets ca…
The Iran Snapback - A Risk Asset Risk?
The Iran Snapback - A Risk Asset Risk? Investment Conclusion On August 28, 2025, the European signatories of the UN Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) activated a Snapback clause in the JCPOA that will reimpose sanctions on Iran after 30 days. This is on foot…
Le Budget de Monsieur Bayrou
Le Budget de Monsieur Bayrou Investment Conclusion I’m not shorting French sovereign bonds (OATS) now. Shorting OATS now would only pay off if there are immediate legislative elections. That could be a result of a vote of no confidence in the Bayrou governm…
Odd bins: Jackson Hole, Russia & Shipping
Odd bins: Jackson Hole, Russia & Shipping Investment Conclusion : Jackson Hole is a pivot in the Fed’s reaction function which now under-emphasises tariff effects on inflation and over-emphasises the weakening labor market. So more cuts than I thought (3 at le…
RTHK The Close: Jackson Hole Pivot and President Trump’s Crusade Against the US Fed
RTHK The Close: Carolyn Wright, Richard Harris & David Roche discuss Jackson Hole policy shift and Trump’s plot against the US Fed. Market implications.
NDTV: David Roche: US Fed Pivot at Jackson Hole: Doubtful Assumptions and False Analysis
NDTV: David Roche: US Fed Pivot at Jackson Hole: Doubtful Assumptions & False Analysis
The Jackson Hole Pivot
The Jackson Hole Pivot Investment Conclusion What Chair Powell's newly announced policy means for investors: More asset bubbles in equities, crypto and non-bank credit; Higher inflation down the road as the money will be printed to fund it; …
Audio recording: Fed Powell opens door to potential rate cuts at Jackson Hole.
Jackson Hole - Chair Powell's Speech: This means further monetary policy easing and Fed rate cuts. Here is Chair Powell's logic: Labour Marke t There exists a curious balance: supply and demand for labor are both contracting. This creates a "curious" …