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The Fed Minute Fumble
The Fed Minute Fumble The FOMC minutes must be assessed in the context of the US Treasury’s apparent intent to reduce long Treasury yields below market-determined levels. Stay short the US dollar. Stay short US Treasuries. Beware of the AI credit bubble, which will now reach new …
King Canute and the Bond Market
King Canute and the Bond MarketInvestment Conclusion The US Treasury is increasing purchases of long-term Treasuries. The stated objective is to improve liquidity. Nobody is fooled. The aim is to control and lower long term US Treasury yields. The policy is ill advised. It won’t …
US Fed – Warsh & The Little Trojan Ponies
US Fed – Warsh & The Little Trojan Ponies The FOMC meeting will change nothing. But the Dot Plots will be telling for the future. And the things to watch for are: • Hints at the end of forward guidance. • Replacing the inflation target currently used by the Fe…
The Warsh Identity
The Warsh Identity Investment Conclusion The appointment of Kevin Warsh to be the next Fed Chair is not at all bad. But it will not change the path of global de-dollarisation or the dilution of Fed independence. However it might slow the pace a little. Warsh is unli…
The Fed and the BOJ: The Manichaean War for Central Bank Independence
The Fed and the BOJ More Fed cuts to come....but not the sort that will contiue to inspire confidence in equity markets. In Japan the battle for central bnk independence will be declared when Ueda raises rate by 75BP in the BoJ December meeting. That will …
Odd bins
Odd bins Investment Conclusion Asian equities added as European equities reduced. A warning on Fed Independence. Shipping data show weakness in the US economy.
Odd bins: Jackson Hole, Russia & Shipping
Odd bins: Jackson Hole, Russia & Shipping Investment Conclusion : Jackson Hole is a pivot in the Fed’s reaction function which now under-emphasises tariff effects on inflation and over-emphasises the weakening labor market. So more cuts than I thought (3 at least)…
The Jackson Hole Pivot
The Jackson Hole Pivot Investment Conclusion What Chair Powell's newly announced policy means for investors: More asset bubbles in equities, crypto and non-bank credit; Higher inflation down the road as the money will be printed to fund it; …
Parsing FOMC Minutes and Tariff Announcements
Parsing FOMC Minutes and Tariff Announcements I parsed the FOMC minutes. I think the Fed will hang tough. Seems only Bowman & Waller want to cut. All the others more worried about inflation than the labour market. I expect inflation to rise sharply & durably in late su…