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US Fed – Warsh & The Little Trojan Ponies
US Fed – Warsh & The Little Trojan Ponies The FOMC meeting will change nothing. But the Dot Plots will be telling for the future. And the things to watch for are: • Hints at the end of forward guidance. • Replacing the inflation target currently used by the Fe…
The Warsh Identity
The Warsh Identity Investment Conclusion The appointment of Kevin Warsh to be the next Fed Chair is not at all bad. But it will not change the path of global de-dollarisation or the dilution of Fed independence. However it might slow the pace a little. Warsh is unli…
The Fed and the BOJ: The Manichaean War for Central Bank Independence
The Fed and the BOJ More Fed cuts to come....but not the sort that will contiue to inspire confidence in equity markets. In Japan the battle for central bnk independence will be declared when Ueda raises rate by 75BP in the BoJ December meeting. That will …
Odd bins
Odd bins Investment Conclusion Asian equities added as European equities reduced. A warning on Fed Independence. Shipping data show weakness in the US economy.
Odd bins: Jackson Hole, Russia & Shipping
Odd bins: Jackson Hole, Russia & Shipping Investment Conclusion : Jackson Hole is a pivot in the Fed’s reaction function which now under-emphasises tariff effects on inflation and over-emphasises the weakening labor market. So more cuts than I thought (3 at least)…