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Middle East Energy Update (WhatsApp sent to clients)
Despite mounting claims that clandestine operations are freeing tankers from the Gulf, QS hard data tells a different story: a steady 2.0mn bpd via the Strait of Hormuz, a 12–13mn bpd daily supply shortfall with no change, and a China driving paper price suppression through stra…
Navigator: ME: 7 Days in May
Navigator: ME: 7 Days in May. This is the report version of a WhatsApp com sent to clients on June 1. Nothing is moving in the Straits of Hormuz. The ME hole in crude oil supply means the world is on a glide path to fall over the supply cliff in summer and beyond. But…
Navigator
This week's Navigator takes the plunge: What is causing the Precious Metal and Hard Asset Meltdown? How far will it go? Is the long term story still intact, When to buy again? Middle East will the whole thing turn TACO? Why not? Why every outcome of a war is not be…
Navigator
Navigator I am biting the bullet and cutting Japanese equity and yen positions. Keeping the short yen on. The reason is twofold: disastrous budget that will push 10yr Japanese JGB yields above Bund's at 2.7% ; and China putting Japan in the crosshairs to make an ex…
Odd bins
Odd bins Investment Conclusion A renminbi based international payment and reserve system will take off within a year causing a leg down in the US$’s role as global reserve currency. Gold, not the RMB, will be the reserve asset of choice. Gold will go to US$6000 per t…
Oddbins
Investment Conclusion There are no changes in the Wealth Preservation Portfolio this week. But long/overweight Japanese equities is being put on watch. Investors who cut Yen long positions in Yen may consider re-entering them. The BoJ has no excuse not to lean into Taka…
Global Shipping: US Titan or Titanic?
Global Shipping - The US: Titan or Titanic Summary Shipping is like dark matter in the Universe. It keeps things expanding smoothly. It runs hypothetically in the background of world affairs like dark matter and energy in the universe. It prevents (stellar or earthly)…
Odd bins
Odd bins. Investment Conclusion When the bubble bursts, will it be a correction or a catastrophe? Preview and thoughts next. Increase exposure to safe haven assets (see Wealth Preservation Portfolio (WPP) at the end). AUD and SGD longs are being added to the WPF.
RTHK The Close, David Roche, Richard HARRIS join Carolyn Wright to discuss US skilled worker permits, shipping, and how the upcoming Japanese election
RTHK The Close, David Roche, Richard HARRIS join Carolyn Wright to discuss US skilled worker permits, sea container traffic, and how the upcoming Japanese election might move mean for markets