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Navigator: Iran’s New Nukes

Strategy Report ·David Roche ·22 Mar 2026

Navigator: Iran’s New Nukes. Miracles can happen. The Iranian regime could fall. But more likely is further escalation. In the end Iran wins strategically even if it loses the war. That transforms the Gulf into Iran's new nuke. And Tehran will have no reason not to…

Report

ME The Gulf: After – Matters

Strategy Report ·David Roche ·09 Mar 2026

ME The Gulf: After – Matters Investment Strategy. Brent oil spiked above $100. That was the limit set in “ME - What Matter Matters?” to sell the rest of the long Brent position. The 50% of the long oil position that remained was sold and the proceeds added to gold.…

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ME – What Matters Matter?

Strategy Report ·David Roche ·08 Mar 2026

ME – What Matters Matter? We are probably at the point of maximum Iranian war disruption. Long oil hedge is being cut 50% and will be sold completely if Brent goes above US$100/bbl. The reasons: · Massive naval power being refocused on Gulf shipping security. So…

Media

NDTV War in the West: The Implications of Iran’s Offensive Strategy

David Roche ·02 Mar 2026

NDTV WAR IN THE WEST;: Iran’s strategy aims are regime survival and maximising damage to global energy supply and Gulf State and Western economies. Can it deliver? We assess Tehran’s military arsenal and economic weapons such as de facto closure of the Straits of Hormuz. I…

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Middle East Update

Strategy Report ·David Roche ·01 Mar 2026

Middle East Update Investment Conclusion Conflict will be more prolonged. Oil disruption may be longer lasting and be more substantial than I previously thought. QS is putting back on long Brent positions and adding back 10% to Gold and other hard assets. NOT using …

Media

CNBC Asia Squawk Box - The Imminent End of the Mullahs?

David Roche ·27 Feb 2026

CNBC Squawk Box Asia with Martin Soong and Chery Kang: The end of the mullahs - great! But it’s how we get there that matters to markets.

Report

Navigator

Strategy Report ·David Roche ·15 Feb 2026

Navigator Investment Conclusion The Middle East is still heading for a US-Iran war. But the timing is put back to end March (reasons below). The Munich Conference was a calming affair. But that is just a paint job. Beneath, the transatlantic alliance is deepl…

Report

Navigator

Strategy Report ·David Roche ·02 Feb 2026

This week's Navigator takes the plunge: What is causing the Precious Metal and Hard Asset Meltdown? How far will it go? Is the long term story still intact, When to buy again? Middle East will the whole thing turn TACO? Why not? Why every outcome of a war is not be…

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