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Welcome Back! Here's What Moved While You Were Away.
Welcome back from the summer break. In our view, what moved in your absence isn't seven unrelated headlines but one connected regime shift, spanning AI, energy and food, central bank independence, the dollar, and geopolitics and we've pulled it all together in the attached client…
US Oil Inventories: Constrained Reserves Meet a Tightening Commercial Deficit
Commercial US crude and distillate stocks are already below their 30-day floors, and a 25% SPR access restriction leaves far less real cushion than headline inventory numbers suggest. David Roche's latest note lays out the case for either a near-term price squeeze or a fresh roun…
Navigator – Checking the Engine Oil, Water and Tokens
Navigator: Checking the Engine Oil, Water and Tokens This week we check the levels in the engine room: oil, water and tokens. Oil, The Global crude oil supply deficit has jumped to 15mn bpd. At this rate of depletion oil inventories get tight in September and even the U…
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Why Hasn't the Oil Price Gone Stratospheric? (Client Q&A)
Gulf paralysis has removed an estimated 20mn bpd of crude from global markets — around 12% of world consumption once diverted pipeline flows and shadow-tanker volumes through Hormuz are netted out. This note walks through David Roche's supply-deficit arithmetic, identifies Chin…
ME OIL SUPPLY SHOCK: SENSITIVITY TO A GULF BREAKDOWN
US strikes on IRGC facilities have slashed Gulf oil flow to 2mn bpd, pushing the global supply deficit to 14mn bpd. David Roche's sensitivity analysis shows this justifies spot Brent at $85-90 now, climbing to $95+ within two months as OECD inventories race toward their reserv…
ME – What Matters Matter?
ME – What Matters Matter? We are probably at the point of maximum Iranian war disruption. Long oil hedge is being cut 50% and will be sold completely if Brent goes above US$100/bbl. The reasons: · Massive naval power being refocused on Gulf shipping security. So…
Middle East Update
Middle East Update Investment Conclusion Conflict will be more prolonged. Oil disruption may be longer lasting and be more substantial than I previously thought. QS is putting back on long Brent positions and adding back 10% to Gold and other hard assets. NOT using …
Absolutism Is A Bad Thing
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