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ME – Cutting to the Quick
ME – Cutting to the Quick The US blockade so far appears to be only partially successful in halting Iranian oil shipments or restoring freedom of navigation using the Omani exit route from the Straits of Hormuz (SoHo). The continued flow of oil from Iran will ease s…
Navigator - ME More War to seize Gulf
Navigator - ME More War to seize Gulf The failure of the Peace Talks means there will be more military action. It is unlikely that the US can afford to return the massive scale of war promised us before. Economically and politically, that is too costly. Inst…
The Defeat of the Deal.
The Defeat of the Deal. This deal is taco with a price tag. For markets no war is a win. For investors it leaves us in Limbo- not Heavan or Hell. For the Iranian regime they emerge as the strategic victor from the war. It achieves lots of IRGC objectiv…
Navigator: Middle East – The Barebones
Navigator: Middle East – The Barebones Here we look at 4 potential outcomes of the Middle East War through the lense of energy prices and demand destruction that matches the outcome. Demand destruction is measured in terms of: the required reduction in global energy c…
ME War – What Moves Matters
ME War – What Moves Matters. This report measures disruption from the Gulf and Red Sea combined. Despite already being disrupted the Red Sea can add a lot more in terms of energy, freight costs, food, fertilizer and metals. This will be an inevitability if President Trump e…
Navigator: Iran’s New Nukes
Navigator: Iran’s New Nukes. Miracles can happen. The Iranian regime could fall. But more likely is further escalation. In the end Iran wins strategically even if it loses the war. That transforms the Gulf into Iran's new nuke. And Tehran will have no reason not to…
ME The Gulf: After – Matters
ME The Gulf: After – Matters Investment Strategy. Brent oil spiked above $100. That was the limit set in “ME - What Matter Matters?” to sell the rest of the long Brent position. The 50% of the long oil position that remained was sold and the proceeds added to gold.…
ME – What Matters Matter?
ME – What Matters Matter? We are probably at the point of maximum Iranian war disruption. Long oil hedge is being cut 50% and will be sold completely if Brent goes above US$100/bbl. The reasons: · Massive naval power being refocused on Gulf shipping security. So…
Middle East Update
Middle East Update Investment Conclusion Conflict will be more prolonged. Oil disruption may be longer lasting and be more substantial than I previously thought. QS is putting back on long Brent positions and adding back 10% to Gold and other hard assets. NOT using …
Navigator
Navigator Investment Conclusion The Middle East is still heading for a US-Iran war. But the timing is put back to end March (reasons below). The Munich Conference was a calming affair. But that is just a paint job. Beneath, the transatlantic alliance is deepl…