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EU Sovereign Debt Crisis - The ECB Toolbox
The ECB will "do whatever it takes" in a Eurozone sovereign debt crisis, but not before spreads are much wider. QS maps the ECB tool box, from TPI and PEPP to OMT and the ESM, shows who authorises each tool, and explains why we stay short French and Spanish 10 yr bonds and the Eu…
The ECB did say something
The ECB did say something! There are 3 important things that the ECB's Mme Lagarde said at the Governing Council presser. Here they are: Inflation undershoot will not result in rate cuts. Even though an undershoot of the inflation target is built into the ECB…
The ECB - Seascapes, Poetry & more rate cuts to come.
ECB Policy Meeting. Conclusion: ECB will continue to cut rates by 25bp in each of the next two meetings. The ECB did as expected: 25bp off all three policy rates and changed to language on monetary stance from being restrictive to a more neutral stance. The…
The ECB & the Fed -- Some Points to Ponder.
Central Banks There were a few interesting things from the ECB and FOMC meetings: ECB Mme LaGarde is convinced that the Eurozone recovery is happening and will accelerate as inflation falls and real incomes rise. Real income will rise because wage increases will …
The Micro Podcast on Macro Matters
Quantum Strategy - David Roche - The Mini Podcast on Macro Matters: The Data: China's NBS PMIs and Industrial Profits. DeepSeek - the deeper meaning of disruption. Trump the first week- the economic consequences of ripping up Alliances. The Fed - when will Trump …
The Mini-Podcast on Macro
David Roche- Quantum Strategy- The Mini Podcast on Macro Matters: US jobs blow out- what it tells us about the Fed going forward. China exports - tell us shipping ahead of Tariffs will create a growth vacuum later. US sanctions on Russian energy - why and how th…
Astern!
We're in for a bear market in most asset classes during 2025. This piece integrates the macro and micro reasons for that conviction. The core conviction is that macro-risk is out of synch with market volatility. This will be resolved by market volatility rising as macro …
The Micro Podcast on Macro Matters.
Quantum Strategy - David Roche - The Micro Podcast on Macro! Sign on for Free Research Trial: https://www.QuantumStrategy.org Coming up his week: - The pulling forward of demand in China that will create gaps in demand later: Exports, Consumer Durables, Autos and…
France- Plus Ca Change, Plus Ca Reste La Meme Chose.
Investment Conclusion PM Bayrou presented his government yesterday. It is a weak one by any measure. There will be no fiscal or other reform in France. Populists will take over in June. Yet another weak short lived French government has spillover effects. It increases the risk of…