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Middle East Energy: How Fast Will Supply Recover? Watch the Ships, Not the Rigs

Strategy Report ·David Roche ·18 Jun 2026

David Roche assesses why Middle East crude supply should recover faster than production capacity over the next six months, as Gulf shipping flows and a 300mb inventory buffer narrow the global oil deficit and push crude toward a $75–85/bbl range.

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The Fracturing of OPEC - UAE quits OPEC on May 1

Strategy Report ·David Roche ·28 Apr 2026

The Fracturing of OPEC - UAE quits OPEC on May 1 UAE quitting OPEC means: · No change in oil prices or oil supply in short term as UAE oil outlets are constrained by Gulf blockades. · Long term UAE oil output could painlessly double to 6mn bpd. This would …

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Iran Amilitaryshowdown

Archive Report ·David Roche ·06 Apr 2006

This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch.

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