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Welcome Back! Here's What Moved While You Were Away.
Welcome back from the summer break. In our view, what moved in your absence isn't seven unrelated headlines but one connected regime shift, spanning AI, energy and food, central bank independence, the dollar, and geopolitics and we've pulled it all together in the attached client…
US Oil Inventories: Constrained Reserves Meet a Tightening Commercial Deficit
Commercial US crude and distillate stocks are already below their 30-day floors, and a 25% SPR access restriction leaves far less real cushion than headline inventory numbers suggest. David Roche's latest note lays out the case for either a near-term price squeeze or a fresh roun…
Strait of Hormuz Exports Jump on July 1 — But the World Is Still Living Off Storage
The world is still running a 6mn bpd crude supply deficit and living off inventory to hide it. David Roche's latest tracker on Strait of Hormuz flows, tanker traffic, and the countdown clock on Gulf storage. Full report attached.
Middle East Energy: How Fast Will Supply Recover? Watch the Ships, Not the Rigs
David Roche assesses why Middle East crude supply should recover faster than production capacity over the next six months, as Gulf shipping flows and a 300mb inventory buffer narrow the global oil deficit and push crude toward a $75–85/bbl range.
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Middle East Energy Update (WhatsApp sent to clients)
Middle East Oil Supply: David Roche's weekend WhatsApp update — now published in full for your reference.
Oil Prices & China's Vanishing Imports
What started as a WhatsApp update to clients on Friday is now a formal QS Macro Research Note. As headlines swirled around oil supplies and China's import trajectory, David Roche flagged a dynamic most market participants are missing: it's not demand destruction driving the pric…
Energy - Americas Revolution - A Game Changer
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