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US Derivatives: Small Tail to Wag Big Dog
INVESTMENT CONCLUSION The bottom line of all the bottom lines is higher inflation, interest rate stress in AI and private credit, and central banks forced to tighten. US energy prices go up, not down. Global refined product supply falls, agriculture takes another supply side hit,…
The Venezuelan Oil Deal- Shades of Conrad’s Nostromo
The Venezuelan Oil Deal- Shades of Conrad’s Nostromo The “deal” could lift Venezuelan oil output from 1.25mn bpd to 3mn bpd within five years, requiring about US$100bn of investment. Bigger numbers will be advertised. This is the plausible case. That would add roughly 1-2% to glo…
Navigator: Measure for Measure
Navigator: Measure for Measure The lullaby that the ME war has plateaued into economic irrelevance reached fever pitch this week. Most of the propaganda was unsubstantiated twaddle. The IEA, by contrast, showed continuing inventory drawdowns, which point to inventory exhaustion b…