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US Derivatives: Small Tail to Wag Big Dog
INVESTMENT CONCLUSION The bottom line of all the bottom lines is higher inflation, interest rate stress in AI and private credit, and central banks forced to tighten. US energy prices go up, not down. Global refined product supply falls, agriculture takes another supply side hit,…
Welcome Back! Here's What Moved While You Were Away.
Welcome back from the summer break. In our view, what moved in your absence isn't seven unrelated headlines but one connected regime shift, spanning AI, energy and food, central bank independence, the dollar, and geopolitics and we've pulled it all together in the attached client…
US Oil Inventories: Constrained Reserves Meet a Tightening Commercial Deficit
Commercial US crude and distillate stocks are already below their 30-day floors, and a 25% SPR access restriction leaves far less real cushion than headline inventory numbers suggest. David Roche's latest note lays out the case for either a near-term price squeeze or a fresh roun…
Global Choke Points: Oil, Grain and the Rising Risk to Trade
Four maritime choke points are disrupting global trade at once: Middle East oil shipments have collapsed to 3.1mn bpd from 17mn bpd in three weeks, while the MoLoCHKa offensive and Panama Canal restrictions put roughly 22% of global grain trade at risk. This note maps the suppl…
ME OIL SUPPLY SHOCK: SENSITIVITY TO A GULF BREAKDOWN
US strikes on IRGC facilities have slashed Gulf oil flow to 2mn bpd, pushing the global supply deficit to 14mn bpd. David Roche's sensitivity analysis shows this justifies spot Brent at $85-90 now, climbing to $95+ within two months as OECD inventories race toward their reserv…
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Middle East Energy Update (WhatsApp sent to clients)
Middle East Oil Supply: David Roche's weekend WhatsApp update — now published in full for your reference.
A Crude Way To Double Down
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