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US Derivatives: Small Tail to Wag Big Dog
INVESTMENT CONCLUSION The bottom line of all the bottom lines is higher inflation, interest rate stress in AI and private credit, and central banks forced to tighten. US energy prices go up, not down. Global refined product supply falls, agriculture takes another supply side hit,…
Conviction 2 - Middle East OIL
Conviction 2 — ME Oil Everyone's fighting over whose Hormuz-escaping barrel count is bigger this week. Quantum Strategy cuts through the noise with two numbers that matter: an 8mn bpd crude deficit against peacetime supply, which widens to a 12mn bpd refined product shortfall onc…
Navigator: Convictions
Navigator: Convictions! The single biggest theme is the inflation tsunami being generated by food and energy. This will get worse. The Safe Haven Assets are doing their job. They will go on doing so. My two big beliefs: Energy and food price inflation are not over and are multi-y…
Global Choke Points: Oil, Grain and the Rising Risk to Trade
Four maritime choke points are disrupting global trade at once: Middle East oil shipments have collapsed to 3.1mn bpd from 17mn bpd in three weeks, while the MoLoCHKa offensive and Panama Canal restrictions put roughly 22% of global grain trade at risk. This note maps the suppl…
Navigator – Checking the Engine Oil, Water and Tokens
Navigator: Checking the Engine Oil, Water and Tokens This week we check the levels in the engine room: oil, water and tokens. Oil, The Global crude oil supply deficit has jumped to 15mn bpd. At this rate of depletion oil inventories get tight in September and even the U…
Navigator: New Chokepoints and New Themes
Navigator: New Chokepoints and New Themes We have a new Chokepoint and a New War. It is the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea. It is the first offensive ever to be based 100% on Drones (with a few missiles thrown in for effect). It has global implications. This all smacks …