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US Middle East Position
QS expects no substantive US military action before the Midterms, with a third Strike Group giving only a short window for temporary escalation. The main risk is Iran escalating and putting further military stress on the Gulf States.
Arctic Shipping: Promise, Limits and Strategic Reality
Arctic Shipping: Promise, Limits and Strategic Reality Arctic shipping is no longer pure speculation, but is it a real challenge to Suez and Malacca? David Roche weighs Russia's Northern Sea Route against the numbers: the vessel-size limits, icebreaker costs and insurance risk st…
ME Oil: Supposing Supposing the Straits were unfrozen…..
ME Oil: Supposing Supposing the Straits were unfrozen….. This note provides a toolkit for thinking through what happens if the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) is reopened, either fully or partially — and what happens to oil prices if it is not. The best that can realistically be hoped for…
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Why Hasn't the Oil Price Gone Stratospheric? (Client Q&A)
Gulf paralysis has removed an estimated 20mn bpd of crude from global markets — around 12% of world consumption once diverted pipeline flows and shadow-tanker volumes through Hormuz are netted out. This note walks through David Roche's supply-deficit arithmetic, identifies Chin…
ME OIL SUPPLY SHOCK: SENSITIVITY TO A GULF BREAKDOWN
US strikes on IRGC facilities have slashed Gulf oil flow to 2mn bpd, pushing the global supply deficit to 14mn bpd. David Roche's sensitivity analysis shows this justifies spot Brent at $85-90 now, climbing to $95+ within two months as OECD inventories race toward their reserv…
Middle East Energy Update (WhatsApp sent to clients)
Middle East Oil Supply: David Roche's weekend WhatsApp update — now published in full for your reference.
The Coming Showdown With Iran
This Strategy Report is from the Archive, and is presented in its original format. Tags have been generated by AI. If you notice any inconsistencies, please get in touch.