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Russia: Increasing Signs of Economic Bankruptcy and Desperation
Vladimir Putin has quietly opened the door to seizing almost any privately owned enterprise in Russia. David Roche unpacks the August 24 decree, its indefinite seizure mechanism, and why the move reads less like strength than fiscal strain. Essential reading for anyone tracking s…
Arctic Shipping: Promise, Limits and Strategic Reality
Arctic Shipping: Promise, Limits and Strategic Reality Arctic shipping is no longer pure speculation, but is it a real challenge to Suez and Malacca? David Roche weighs Russia's Northern Sea Route against the numbers: the vessel-size limits, icebreaker costs and insurance risk st…
Navigator: Divine Intervention
Navigator: Divine Intervention The Oil Supply figures that our research and the US Administration claim to be true are irreconcilable. One or the other will be proven completely wrong in September. Stay long Ice Diesel, EU TTF Gas and Brent (in that order). QS research finds that…
The Fed Minute Fumble
The Fed Minute Fumble The FOMC minutes must be assessed in the context of the US Treasury’s apparent intent to reduce long Treasury yields below market-determined levels. Stay short the US dollar. Stay short US Treasuries. Beware of the AI credit bubble, which will now reach new …
King Canute and the Bond Market
King Canute and the Bond MarketInvestment Conclusion The US Treasury is increasing purchases of long-term Treasuries. The stated objective is to improve liquidity. Nobody is fooled. The aim is to control and lower long term US Treasury yields. The policy is ill advised. It won’t …
Navigator: Measure for Measure
Navigator: Measure for Measure The lullaby that the ME war has plateaued into economic irrelevance reached fever pitch this week. Most of the propaganda was unsubstantiated twaddle. The IEA, by contrast, showed continuing inventory drawdowns, which point to inventory exhaustion b…
Navigator: Great Gas!
Navigator: Great Gas! This week’s Navigator deals with one investment idea (TTF Gas) and one theme - Chokeholds & Energy Scarcity!
ME Oil: Supposing Supposing the Straits were unfrozen…..
ME Oil: Supposing Supposing the Straits were unfrozen….. This note provides a toolkit for thinking through what happens if the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) is reopened, either fully or partially — and what happens to oil prices if it is not. The best that can realistically be hoped for…
Yen: Why Intervention Can Work When It Shouldn’t! (And a Modest Road Map for Currency Weaponisation)
Yen: Why Intervention Can Work When It Shouldn’t! (And a Modest Road Map for Currency Weaponisation) This report analyses two things: · The US-Japanese Yen intervention. Why it can work for a while. But needs Japan to change monetary policy to make it last. This won’t happen. So …
Navigator: The Heart of Each Matter
Navigator: The Heart of Each Matter This piece looks at each of our major themes and highlights the critical investment variable that will make then succeed or fail. Middle East Oil Disruption - why the broadening, deepening conflict leaves Iran feeling stronger and the US lookin…